027
WTPA42 PHFO 242056
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU SEP 24 2026
NOLO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A RAGGED EYE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PRIMITIVE EYEWALL NOTED ON THE LATEST
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT, AT THE HIGH
END OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION ON
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE.
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE DAY, BUT APPEARS TO
FINALLY BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS NO CHANGE THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS CAUSING NOLO TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE AWAY BY THE WEEKEND AND BE
REPLACED BY A RIDGE, FORCING A SHARP WESTWARD TURN ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHWARD TREND DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES HAS
STOPPED AND IS ACTUALLY TRENDING SOUTHWARD, LED BY THE ECMWF MODEL.
THE NEW FORECAST IS A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE LAST ONE, BUT REALLY ALL
THESE TRACK CHANGES ARE QUITE SMALL. THIS REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST WITH SOME MODEL ENSEMBLE TRACKS STILL OVER THE BIG ISLAND,
THOUGH MOST ARE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AND A CLOSER TRACK COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES, AND IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE RIDGES.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO NOW
THAT AN INNER CORE HAS FORMED, COMBINED WITH WARM WARM SSTS, LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. NOLO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS, CLOSE TO THE HCCA AID. AT LONG
RANGE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CAUSE NOLO TO WEAKEN, AND
THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOWERED AT THAT TIME.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. NOLO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII ON SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE GIVEN BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS, INCLUDING EVACUATING IF TOLD TO DO SO.
2. THE TIME TO FINISH PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IMPACTS ON THE BIG ISLAND IS NOW AS HEAVY RAIN INCREASES IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII, LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
3. LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND'S COASTLINE INTO THE WEEKEND.
4. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY WHERE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS
IN PLACE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 14.9N 156.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.4N 156.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 155.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.2N 155.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.7N 156.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 17.8N 157.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 17.8N 159.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.5N 165.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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