512
WTPA32 PHFO 250250
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU SEP 24 2026
..AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FIND THAT NOLO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE
...HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 155.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 155.9 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR
5 MPH (7 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WESTWARD TURN ON
SATURDAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST, AND NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS
WEEKEND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
984 MB (29.06 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE
FRIDAY IN THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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