255
FXHW60 PHFO 291341
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
341 AM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR
MOST ISLANDS EXCEPT FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU, WHERE SOME INCREASING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
WEDNESDAY AS NOLO REACHES THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BOTH
ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY AS NOLO
PASSES TO THE WEST PULLING UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE STORM INCREASING SHOWERS OVER NIIHAU, KAUAI AND
OAHU. NOLO MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND WITH DRIER
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION.
DISCUSSION
COMPARING THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE LATEST 11 PM HST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, HURRICANE NOLO
REMAINS ON A NORTHERLY TRACK, FORECAST TO PASS ROUGHLY 300 MILES
WEST OF KAUAI. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
NOLO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH HURRICANE NOLO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN BANDS THAT MAY DEVELOP, AND HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING UP THE EASTERN FLANK OF NOLO WILL
INCREASE SHOWER TRENDS LATER TODAY FOR NIIHAU AND KAUAI, EVEN
REACHING OAHU BY TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
AND PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. AT THIS TIME WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING UP TO ADVISORY
LEVEL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR KAUAI COUNTY AS NOLO PASSES WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY
DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS FOR LOCAL SCALE TRAINING OR TERRAIN
ANCHORING FEATURES THAT COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLOOD WARNING
CONCERNS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOCAL SCALE RAINFALL IMPACTS MAY RAPIDLY
CHANGE OVER TIME.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES RETURN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS STATEWIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLY, MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
BY MONDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION AND DEEPENS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIVE A
CONVERGENCE CLOUD BAND INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CLOUD BAND WILL LIKELY BRING A SEVERAL DAY
PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWER TRENDS TO ALL ISLANDS FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA, AND INCLUDE
THE COMMUNITIES SURROUNDING HILO.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO
THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND CONTINUE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS KAUAI STARTING LATE MORNING TODAY WITH SHOWER
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING FOR OAHU LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
9,000 FEET OVER AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS
AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE NOLO, NOW LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS FOR MUCH
OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE IN
THE COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO NOLO, ESPECIALLY AS IT TRACKS NORTH
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS AROUND KAUAI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS NOLO CREEPS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. ONCE IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AWAY
OVER THE WEEKEND, EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURN.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE
NOLO WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
TODAY. FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU, BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE SWELL FROM
THE HURRICANE, SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING SHORES, FOR WHICH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF WILL LINGER AS HURRICANE NOLO LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES
CENTERED SOME 250 TO 300 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF KAUAI BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK, WEST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS SOUTH-FACING SHORES
SEE A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SURF THROUGH MID-WEEK. FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A
SERIES OF SMALL, LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELLS ORIGINATING
FROM NEAR NEW ZEALAND.
SURF ALONG EAST SHORES SLOWLY DECLINES AS TRADES VEER SOUTHEAST
AND DIMINISH, THEN RETURN AS LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES THIS
WEEKEND. FOR NORTH-FACING SHORES, THE EXISTING SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD
SWELL FADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TINY SWELL
ORIGINATING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL REACH NORTH AND SELECT
WEST FACING EXPOSURES NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
WIND SPEEDS FOR MOST AREAS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS FOR KAUAI COUNTY WILL INCREASE INTO THE
BREEZY RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE NOLO
PASSES ROUGHLY 300 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS. NOLO'S
PASSAGE WILL BOOST HUMIDITY LEVELS, DECREASING CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE 5,500 AND 6,500 FEET
ELEVATION LEVEL.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI SOUTH-
KAUAI SOUTHWEST-NIIHAU.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
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