046
FXHW60 PHFO 300109
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
309 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE NOLO WILL SLOWLY PASS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI AND
OAHU. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME TRADE WINDS BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HURRICANE NOLO IS AROUND 310 MILES WEST OF LIHUE THIS AFTERNOON
TRACKING NORTH AT 8 MPH. NOLO IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STALL WEST OF
THE STATE TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS NOLO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
WHILE NOLO WILL NOT MAKE DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE STATE, RAIN BANDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WILL MOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
BRING SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU, AND
UP TO 4 INCHES ON OAHU. NOT CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE
ANTICIPATION THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER
SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. HOWEVER,
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DIRECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE POPULATED AREAS OF
BOTH ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A HYBRID EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WHERE THE BIG ISLAND WILL PARTIALLY BLOCK
MAUI COUNTY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED NIGHTTIME LAND THAT WILL CLEAR
SKIES OUT AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZES THAT WILL BRING INTERIOR CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE
MINIMAL.
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN,
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS NOLO TRACKS AWAY. WINDS
WILL BACK TO MODERATE TRADES BY THE WEEKEND.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND STALL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A SECOND FRONT
APPROACHES MUCH SLOWER. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
DIURNAL LAND AND SEA BREEZE WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD PICK UP
BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERN
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HURRICANE NOLO REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE BUT IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL REACH
KAUAI THIS EVENING AND REACH OAHU OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KAUAI, WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONCENTRATED, WHILE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY IMPACT OAHU AIRPORTS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY EXTEND TOWARDS MOLOKAI, MAUI, AND LANAI.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
9,000 FEET OVER AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS
AIRMET WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAILS OVER AREA WATERS. STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AROUND KAUAI
DUE TO HURRICANE NOLO'S CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. MODERATE TRADES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD SW SWELL ORIGINATING FROM NOLO HAS
EASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS COMING IN BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA). THE HSA HAS THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. SURF ALONG E SHORES HAS DECLINED IN RESPONSE TO EMERGING
SE FLOW. SURF WILL REMAIN SMALL UNTIL MODERATE TRADES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A MODEST BOOST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TINY SWELL
ORIGINATING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL REACH NORTH AND
SELECT WEST FACING EXPOSURES NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TO DUE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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