564
FXHW60 PHFO 300640
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE NOLO WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS
AND REMAIN OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOLO WILL TAKE A WESTERLY TURN AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE STATE THURSDAY, NEARING THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AS A
CATEGORY 1 OR TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG NOLO'S
EASTERN FLANK WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PASS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OAHU AND KAUAI LIKELY PICKING UP
THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION
BACK TO TRADES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE NOLO, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NAUTICAL
MILES WEST OF BARKING SANDS BEACH, KAUAI, IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTH
IS EVENING. NOLO'S FAR EASTERN OUTER BANDS ARE PROVIDING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AS THEY QUICKLY PASS OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH. THIS EVENING'S RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LOW WITH NO MORE THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR RATES AT MANY
WEST AND CENTRAL KAUAI SITES. THESE LOW AMOUNTS ARE PRIMARILY
ATTRIBUTED TO THESE RAIN CELLS PASSING NORTH AT 25 MPH. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WEST OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI, NOLO'S MORE NORTH-THAN-WEST MOTION WILL
KEEP RETURN PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DUE TO THE QUICK PASSAGE
OF THIS RAIN, MOST AREAS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING CONCERNS. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOWER LYING AREAS AND
STREET PONDING MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND KAUAI, THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE EVENT THAT RAINFALL BECOMES MORE ORIENTATED
TO THE BACKGROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXHIBITS MORE OF A TRAINING
NATURE.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS HURRICANE NOLO GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE
STATE. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL BRING SHOWERS
INTO MAINLY KAUAI AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH KAUAI EXPECTING THE MOST COVERAGE. MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OAHU.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF THE ISLAND TERRAIN OVER KAUAI.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
HURRICANE NOLO IS AROUND 310 MILES WEST OF LIHUE THIS AFTERNOON
TRACKING NORTH AT 8 MPH. NOLO IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STALL WEST OF
THE STATE TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS NOLO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
WHILE NOLO WILL NOT MAKE DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE STATE, RAIN BANDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WILL MOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
BRING SHOWERS ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING
TO SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU, AND
UP TO 4 INCHES ON OAHU. NOT CONSIDERING A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE
ANTICIPATION THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER
SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. HOWEVER,
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DIRECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE POPULATED AREAS OF
BOTH ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A HYBRID EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WHERE THE BIG ISLAND WILL PARTIALLY BLOCK
MAUI COUNTY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED NIGHTTIME LAND THAT WILL CLEAR
SKIES OUT AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZES THAT WILL BRING INTERIOR CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WILL BE
MINIMAL.
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN,
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS NOLO TRACKS AWAY. WINDS
WILL BACK TO MODERATE TRADES BY THE WEEKEND.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND STALL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A SECOND FRONT
APPROACHES MUCH SLOWER. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
DIURNAL LAND AND SEA BREEZE WEATHER PATTERN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAILS OVER AREA WATERS. STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AROUND KAUAI
DUE TO HURRICANE NOLO'S CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. MODERATE TRADES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD SW SWELL ORIGINATING FROM NOLO HAS
EASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS COMING IN BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA). THE HSA HAS THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. SURF ALONG E SHORES HAS DECLINED IN RESPONSE TO EMERGING
SE FLOW. SURF WILL REMAIN SMALL UNTIL MODERATE TRADES RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A MODEST BOOST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TINY SWELL
ORIGINATING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL REACH NORTH AND
SELECT WEST FACING EXPOSURES NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026
FIRE CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TO DUE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...JVC
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