114
FXHW60 PHFO 301941
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
941 AM HST WED SEP 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO HAS MOVED OUT OF HAWAII'S
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL TRAVEL WEST OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT WATERS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG NOLO'S EASTERN FLANK WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OAHU AND KAUAI
LIKELY PICKING UP THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WEAKEN THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
THEN TRANSITION BACK TO TRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTED KAUAI THIS MORNING.
A PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN FLANK OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU. LATEST REFS
MODEL WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MID
AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. REST OF
THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS CANT BE RULED
OUT. FLOOD ADVISORY LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PART OF KAUAI
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES OR RAINFALL RATES
DIMINISH.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE STATE. OUTER RAIN
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO MAINLY KAUAI
AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH KAUAI
EXPECTING THE MOST COVERAGE. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF THE ISLAND TERRAIN OVER KAUAI. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS EASE AS
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN NOLO PUSHES FURTHER WEST.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS
AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FOR WATERS SURROUNDING KAUAI, STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO AROUND
11 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS KAUAI
WATERS. GENTLE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY.
THE MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ORIGINATING
FROM NOLO WILL CONTINUE FOR NIIHAU AND KAUAI TODAY. A SMALL
BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR OTHER ISLANDS. THE NEXT SMALL
BOOST IN SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG OTHER SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL UNTIL MODERATE TRADES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A SLIGHT BOOST TO EAST FACING
SHORES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TINY NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL REACH
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORMS
TRACKING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...CASTRO
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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