410
FXHW60 PHFO 010211
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST WED SEP 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT WATERS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
KAUAI AND OAHU LATE THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PERIOD
OF SHOWERS MOVED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH BOTH ISLANDS,
PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. BY MID AFTERNOON,
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE ISLANDS. REST OF THE STATE
REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY, WITH FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM
TIME TO TIME.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW, INDUCED BY
TROPICAL STORM NOLO'S CIRCULATION. TROPICAL STORM NOLO CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY NEAR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE FORECAST BRINGING TROPICAL STORM NOLO BACK TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN 72 HOURS, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE STATE AS NOLO CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH NOLO WILL CONTINUER MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR COASTAL
WATERS, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, DECREASING TO 1.25 BY
SUNDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY.
THEREFORE, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING NEW BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
IN THE LONG TERM, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, BRINGING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER A
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO TRACKS WEST, AWAY FROM THE
STATE. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL BRING SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH KAUAI EXPECTING THE MOST COVERAGE. MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI,
OAHU AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF BIG ISLAND DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE
WINDS DEVELOP, PUSHING SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO SLOWLY
DRIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SINCE WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR WATERS
SURROUNDING KAUAI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADES
WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
THE MODERATE, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM NOLO WILL CONTINUE FOR NIIHAU AND KAUAI THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL
CONTINUES FOR OTHER ISLANDS. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL ENERGY WILL ARRIVE EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SURF ALONG OTHER SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL UNTIL MODERATE TRADES
RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A SLIGHT BOOST TO EAST FACING
SHORES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TINY NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL REACH
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE STORMS TRACKING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 PM HST WED SEP 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER SOUTHERN MOISTURE AND MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE THEN FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTRO
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE....CASTRO
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