610
FXHW60 PHFO 020158
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONTENT BEING DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
WETTER PATTERN FOR HAWAII THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN DRIER
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TRAILING TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL STORM NOLO'S
CIRCULATION BROUGHT AREAS OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OAHU LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFFECTING FIRST THE SOUTHERN PART OF OAHU, INCLUDING
HONOLULU AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS. BY MID
AFTERNOON, MOST SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE
MAIN ACTIVITY SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS KAUAI BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN AS NOLO CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA. AS THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO DIMINISHES, HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. IN THIS LIGHTER FLOW, LAND AND SEA BREEZES
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE PREVALENT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE STATE AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO MOVES AWAY. SHOWERS
LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER KAUAI AND
OAHU TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500 FEET IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS LAND-BREEZES DEVELOP, PUSHING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GENTLE TO FRESH EAST TO
NORTHEAST TRADES WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE MODERATE, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL CONTINUE FOR NIIHAU AND
KAUAI THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL BACKGROUND
SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR OTHER ISLANDS, HOLDING SURF MOSTLY STEADY
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL,
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE FETCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT BOOST IN NORTH SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY DUE TO A
BRIEF, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TINY NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL
REACH NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORMS
TRACKING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE A SLIGHT BOOST AND BECOME
MORE CHOPPY AS EASTERLY TRADES BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO THE LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE STATE. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES RETURN, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, LOWERING THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...ALMANZA
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE....FARRIS
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