488
FXHW60 PHFO 020623
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
823 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO CONTINUES TO DRAFT WESTWARD AWAY
FROM THE HAWAII REGION. HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE ISLANDS
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WILL PRODUCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS, INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY, LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DECREASE SHOWER
TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER TRENDS MAY RETURN FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE AS FRIDAY BECOMES
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN UNSTABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND MORE STABLE RETURNING EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. MORE TYPICAL DRIER EASTERLY TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL LOCK IN
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. NO UPDATES TO THE WEATHER FORECAST
PACKAGE THIS EVENING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS TO ALL ISLANDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TRADE WIND TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE
8,000 TO 10,000 FOOT RANGE, WHICH ALLOWS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE. NORTHEASTERN TO EASTERN WINDWARD
MOUNTAIN SLOPES WOULD LIKELY SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE
TO EASTERLY WIND FORCING IN THIS EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY BOOST RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE 4 AM HST FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
TRAILING TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL STORM NOLO'S
CIRCULATION BROUGHT AREAS OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OAHU LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFFECTING FIRST THE SOUTHERN PART OF OAHU, INCLUDING
HONOLULU AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS. BY MID
AFTERNOON, MOST SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE
MAIN ACTIVITY SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS KAUAI BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN AS NOLO CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA. AS THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO DIMINISHES, HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. IN THIS LIGHTER FLOW, LAND AND SEA BREEZES
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE PREVALENT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
STATE AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO MOVES AWAY. SHOWERS LOOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER KAUAI AND OAHU
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH IN A DRIER AIRMASS
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500 FEET IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS LAND-BREEZES
DEVELOP, PUSHING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM NOLO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GENTLE TO FRESH EAST TO
NORTHEAST TRADES WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE MODERATE, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL CONTINUE FOR NIIHAU AND
KAUAI THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL BACKGROUND
SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR OTHER ISLANDS, HOLDING SURF MOSTLY STEADY
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL,
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE FETCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT BOOST IN NORTH SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY DUE TO A
BRIEF, SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TINY NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL
REACH NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORMS
TRACKING NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE A SLIGHT BOOST AND BECOME
MORE CHOPPY AS EASTERLY TRADES BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 358 PM HST THU OCT 1 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO THE LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE STATE. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES RETURN, WHICH MAY INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, LOWERING THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BOHLIN
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...VAUGHAN
FIRE WEATHER...FARRIS
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