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WTPA42 PHFO 030837
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2026
NOLO IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING, WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPANDING SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A
VERY WARM EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH JTWC
AND HFO CAME IN AT T5.0/90 KT, WHICH ALIGN WITH OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.
GIVEN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 270/9 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VERY LITTLE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, AND SHOWS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 H AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, WITH A FASTER
WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THEREAFTER. NOLO IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN BY 48 H. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION.
THE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IS WELL UNDERWAY, WITH NOLO'S INTENSITY HAVING INCREASED BY ABOUT 20
KT DURING THE PAST 6 H. THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAD BEEN IMPACTING NOLO'S CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ESTIMATE AROUND 5 KT. WEAK SHEAR COMBINED WITH WARMER SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 H. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE
SURROUNDING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ANY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD COULD DISRUPT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE EYEWALL AND
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SHOWING NOLO BECOMING A
MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12 H AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT
IN 36-48 H. THE FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, LYING CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND HAFS-A AND -B. A WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER 48 H AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEGIN TO GRADUALLY AFFECT ITS STRUCTURE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 23.3N 169.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS
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