942
FXHW60 PHFO 031328
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 AM HST SAT OCT 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY, SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SPOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA SPOTS ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE
DROPPING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND USHERING IN SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRADES WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN WILL WEAKEN FURTHER HEADING INTO MIDWEEK
AS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. IN THIS
LIGHTER FLOW, LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE HAWAII REGION
WITH DRIER EASTERLY TRADE WIND WEATHER RETURNING JUST IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND. LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
GENTLE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS FILL BACK IN TODAY
AS HURRICANE NOLO ACCELERATES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT,
WHEN LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS. LOCALLY STRONG TRADES MAY
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AGAIN AND WINDS START TO DIMINISH. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN.
A SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH SWELL WILL SURF MOSTLY STEADY ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL, ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE FETCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK, IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SURF TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL BUMP IN SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL DECREASE TODAY AS
A SMALL, SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL FADES. ANOTHER SMALL BUMP IN NORTH
SHORE SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND PEAKS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY LARGER LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY, GIVING A GOOD BOOST TO NORTH SHORE SURF FOR MID-WEEK. SURF
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE CHOPPY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS EASTERLY TRADES BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST- NORTHEASTERLY TRADES RETURN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD THIS WEEK FOR BOTH
WIND AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND
5000-7000FT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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