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WTPA42 PHFO 032040
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2026
NOLO CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A COMPACT AND NEARLY SYMMETRIC PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED SINCE THE LAST FULL ADVISORY. BASED
ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE, NOLO WAS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR
HURRICANE ON THE 8 AM HST INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SINCE THEN, HFO AND
JTWC EACH PROVIDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT, AND THE HIGHEST
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE AROUND THAT SAME VALUE. THE INTENSITY
OF 100 KT IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
ABOUT 15 KT, WITH NOLO BEING STEERED QUICKLY WESTWARD BY AN
EXPANDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE HURRICANE'S SPEED IS
LIKELY TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 5
DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED AT VARYING MAGNITUDES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL FOR THE
FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE IN 24-30 HOURS. THE MODEL SPREAD IS A LITTLE
HIGHER ON DAYS 4 AND 5. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE EUROPEAN, HAFS-B,
GDMI, AND HCCA SHOW A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE GFS,
HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC SHOW A BIT OF A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THESE SCENARIOS APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO HOW MUCH
NOLO MIGHT INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS (INVEST 94W) AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
JAPAN. FOR NOW, THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE
WESTWARD SCENARIO.
LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, BUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS COMPLETE. IN FACT, RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW
A MOAT NOW SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL, WITH A SECONDARY EYEWALL
POTENTIALLY FORMING ABOUT 25-30 N MI OUT FROM THE CENTER. THIS COULD
MEAN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT IS ABOUT TO OCCUR, WHICH TYPICALLY LEADS
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. IF THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT OCCURS QUICKLY ENOUGH, NOLO COULD REACH A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY IN 24-36 HOURS BEFORE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE
INCREASED SHEAR AND SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DURING THAT TIME FRAME COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 23.2N 173.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.3N 175.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 23.8N 179.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 24.7N 177.6E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 25.1N 174.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 25.3N 170.9E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 25.6N 166.6E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.5N 158.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.3N 152.3E 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER BERG
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