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WTPA42 PHFO 040253
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2026
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE AND THE
INNER CORE OF NOLO HAVE DEGRADED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN ONGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS EVOLUTION WAS SEEN EARLIER ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING AN OUTER MOAT REGION WITHIN THE CYCLONE.
USING A COMBINATION OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND
HFO ALONG WITH THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NOLO CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE WEST AT AROUND 17 KT,
AS THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY AN EXPANDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. NOLO SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION WITH A FORWARD SPEED
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST
AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS TRACK SPREAD SEEMS RELATED TO POTENTIAL
INTERACTION WITH A DISTURBANCE (INVEST 94W) CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
JAPAN. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE, WITH SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON THE HCCA AND GDMI
FORECAST AIDS.
A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST
WILL BE HOW SOON THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMPLETED.
IF THE CYCLE TAKES LONGER TO COMPLETE, NOLO'S INTENSIFICATION COULD
BE DELAYED. AFTER 36 H, THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING THAT MAY ALSO BE HASTENED BY
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH SOME SMALL CHANGES MADE OVER THE NEXT 36
H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 23.4N 175.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE
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