420
WTPA42 PHFO 040837
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2026
NOLO'S INNER-CORE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS ITS EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) PROGRESSES. ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE, THE
SMALL EYE THAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS LARGELY DECAYED, WITH
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW ORGANIZING IN A BROADER RING AS A LARGER
RAGGED EYE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT. EARLIER, AN AMSR3 MICROWAVE PASS
OVER NOLO AT 0043 UTC SHOWED AN INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT REMAINED ON
THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL, BUT A MORE RECENT 0549 UTC WSF-M PASS SHOWED THE
OUTER EYEWALL SOLIDIFYING WITH THE INNER EYEWALL NO LONGER OBSERVED.
THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THE ERC WILL LIKELY COMPLETE IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. FOR NOW, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE LOWERED SOME DURING NOLO'S INNER-CORE FLUCTUATIONS, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT THIS ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED
MOTION OF 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DRAPED
TO THE NORTH OF NOLO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, NOLO SHOULD CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NOLO WILL LIKELY REACH
THE WESTWARD EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING, AND SOME SLOWDOWN IN
ITS FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST, NOLO'S VERTICAL DEPTH COULD BE MORE SHALLOW. SUBSTANTIAL
ACROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE EXISTS, RELATED TO IF THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHWARD OR CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE, BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER
NORTHWARD IN THE 96-120 H PERIOD, FOLLOWING THE TRENDS IN THE
RELIABLE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA), GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI), AND ITS NEWER VERSION (WN3I).
ASSUMING THE CURRENT ERC COMPLETES CLEANLY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 H,
NOLO IS EXPECTED TO START INTENSIFYING AGAIN WHILE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER 28-29 C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND VERY LOW
SHEAR, CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED AT 5 KT BY UW-CIMSS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A 115 KT PEAK, WHICH IS STILL BELOW THE
PEAK INTENSITY REACHED IN THE RAW OUTPUT IN BOTH THE 00 UTC HAFS-B
AND HMON RUNS. AFTER 48 H, A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
INDUCED BY RECURVING TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WILL LEAD TO AN ABRUPT
INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER NOLO. THIS RAMP-UP IN SHEAR
WILL LIKELY ADVECT VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE CYCLONE'S CORE.
THUS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
OCCURRING BETWEEN 48-72 H, WHEN THE BRUNT OF THE SHEAR WILL AFFECT
NOLO. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS SHEAR COULD
LESSEN SOMEWHAT, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENVIRONMENT. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE OVER
THE FIRST 36-48 H, BUT FALLS BACK TO THE MEAN OF THE INTENSITY AIDS
THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 176.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 24.0N 179.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.6E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 25.3N 174.5E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 25.4N 171.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 25.5N 166.7E 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 26.1N 162.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 28.0N 155.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 30.0N 152.5E 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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