656
WTPA42 PHFO 041439
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2026
NOLO APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
OVERNIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE EYEWALL RE-CONSOLIDATING AND A
SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE HAS CLEARED DRASTICALLY,
TRANSITIONING FROM A RAGGED APPEARANCE TO A DISTINCT, CIRCULAR,
WARMING EYE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEGUN TO RESPOND TO THIS
IMPROVEMENT, AND ARE IN THE 94-97 KT RANGE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THESE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 275/16 KT. NOLO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC BASIN WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, NOLO IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN. TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THAT TIME, AS THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE CYCLONE WILL
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JAPAN. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, TRENDING TOWARD THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.
NOLO REMAINS SITUATED WITHIN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT
STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LIES ABOVE
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. BETWEEN 24-36 H, THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND
INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. HOWEVER, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT NOLO IS TAKING ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION SHOULD MAKE THE INNER CORE MORE RESILIENT TO
THE IMPENDING HOSTILE CONDITIONS BY LIMITING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
LIKELY RESULTING IN A SLOWER INITIAL RATE OF WEAKENING THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. ULTIMATELY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR
AND VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE ITS TOLL, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY
WEAKEN BEYOND 48 HOURS. GIVEN THESE STRUCTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE HURRICANE
REGIONAL MODELS, BUT STILL ABOVE THOSE, BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD
THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY AIDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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