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WTPA42 PHFO 042038
TCDCP2
HURRICANE NOLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2026
RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND NOLO IS NO LONGER
EXHIBITING ANNULAR APPEARANCE. SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND A THINNING OF
THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE CLOUD FILLED AND NOT AS WARM WITH AN EYE TEMPERATURE
AROUND 7 C. A RECENT GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE IS
VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND PERHAPS THE RECENT SATELLITE DEGRADATION
COULD JUST BE A BRIEF LULL. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 95 TO 102 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/15 KT. NOLO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS HEADING. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NOLO IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND LIES NEAR THE HCCA AND GDMI
TRACK AIDS.
NOLO IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. BETWEEN 24
AND 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL INDUCE
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF THE WEEK. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LEANING CLOSEST TO THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS, BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO, JAPAN.
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO ARE FOUND ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.JMA.GO.JP/JMA/JMA-ENG/JMA-CENTER/RSMC-HP-PUB-EG/RSMC_HP.HTM
FOR U.S. INTERESTS, SEE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (JTWC) IN HONOLULU, HAWAII. ADVISORIES ISSUED BY JTWC
CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.METOC.NAVY.MIL/JTWC/JTWC.HTML
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 24.2N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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