989
FXHW60 PHFO 090109
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
309 PM HST THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY, TRADES WILL BUILD BACK IN
THIS WEEKEND AND EXTEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE A
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE PATTERN. HOWEVER, WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 3 PM HST, RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, OVER OAHU AND
MOLOKAI, WITH LESS INTENSE SHOWERS OVER THE OTHER ISLANDS.
SATELLITE SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WERE GUSTY
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING
WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WERE COMBINED WITH NEARBY SHOWERS (SUCH
AS KAHULUI AND ON MOLOKAI). THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU CONTINUES
THROUGH 6 PM HST TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS BEEN HELPING TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE STATE THE PAST 24 HOURS. COUPLED WITH
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS,
FLASH FLOODING WAS SEEN ON BOTH KAUAI AND OAHU. THE EVENT ENDED
LAST NIGHT IN KAUAI AS DRY AIR MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
DRY AIR HAS NOW REACHED OAHU, AND HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER DOWN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY FILL AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW STILL
NEARBY AND NOT WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY YET, SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST BUT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL
HELP BRING TRADES BACK TO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THIS TRADE
PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY, WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WILL
STILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
MOVE THROUGH PERIODICALLY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE OF THESE
AREAS MOVING THROUGH IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS NOT HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY WHILE
HUMID AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE
INVERSION HAS BEEN WIPED OUT AND WILL REDEVELOP AS TRADES RETURN
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MAINLY OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND
MAUI. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
AT PHNL, WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
AT PHNY, IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN VFR, BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
KAUAI AND OAHU, AS WELL AS SOUTH- THROUGH WEST-FACING PORTIONS OF
MOLOKAI AND LANAI. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OAHU, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE FAVORED AREAS ARE NORTH AND
EAST OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE INTO
FRIDAY. WEAK TRADES MAY NOSE IN FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MODERATE SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A LONG
PERIOD REINFORCEMENT ARRIVING SATURDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME
BEFORE DECLINING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
THROUGH FRIDAY AND DECLINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE
SURF BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WEST FACING SHORES WILL
BE IMPACTED BY BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELLS, BUT SURF
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
WILL REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE WITH US TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY WHILE
HUMID AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INVERSION HAS BEEN WIPED OUT AND WILL REDEVELOP AS
TRADES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST
HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-
OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...FOSTER
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