765
FXHW60 PHFO 091308
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
308 AM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN EASTERLY
TRADES BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN BUT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS SHOULD
RETURN IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY (3 AM HST), RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT HAS BEEN HELPING TO BRING RAIN TO
THE STATE THE PAST 24 HOURS, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW STILL NEARBY AND NOT
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED, SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TRADES BACK TO THE REGION. A DRIER TRADE
WIND PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH PERIODICALLY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE OF
THESE AREAS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND OR ANY IMPACTS.
AVIATION
WE BRIEFLY TRANSITION BACK INTO EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TODAY IN A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR ALL
ISLANDS IN MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, THE FAVORED AREAS ARE OVER AND
IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS. THIS
AIRMET WILL ALSO LIKELY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE TODAY.
TRADE WINDS NOSE IN FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWAIIAN WATERS, BUT A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE INITIAL RETURN OF EASTERLY WINDS
MAY BE IN THE FRESH RANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT THEY BECOME
MODERATE OR WEAKER SUNDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING
SHORES CLOSE TO, BUT BELOW, ADVISORY LEVEL TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL FADE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT
IS SET TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURF WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE DECLINING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AS A
MEDIUM-PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE DECLINING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SMALLER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A SWELL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN THE PRESENT ONE WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY AND PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF AGAIN BUT
STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...QUESADA
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