473
FXHW60 PHFO 091928
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
928 AM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN EASTERLY
TRADES BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN BUT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS SHOULD
RETURN IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS MORNING, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
OVERALL TODAY, WITH TOPOGRAPHIC EXCEPTIONS DOWNWIND OF ISLANDS AND
LARGER TERRAIN FEATURES. A RETURN TO EASTERLY TRADES WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY, WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ALL THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND NO
CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
CURRENTLY (3 AM HST), RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST THAT HAS BEEN HELPING TO BRING RAIN TO
THE STATE THE PAST 24 HOURS, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW STILL NEARBY AND NOT
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED, SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TRADES BACK TO THE REGION. A DRIER TRADE
WIND PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH PERIODICALLY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE OF
THESE AREAS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND OR ANY IMPACTS.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO DAYTIME SEABREEZES. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS
THE MORNING AS MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL ISLANDS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR MAUI
COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY MID-MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA
FOR THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS CONDITIONS IMPROVED EARLY
THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE NO OTHER AIRMETS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OR EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE THAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE TODAY.
TRADE WINDS NOSE IN FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWAIIAN WATERS, BUT A TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE INITIAL RETURN OF EASTERLY WINDS
MAY BE IN THE FRESH RANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT THEY BECOME
MODERATE OR WEAKER SUNDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING
SHORES CLOSE TO, BUT BELOW, ADVISORY LEVEL TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL FADE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT
IS SET TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURF WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE DECLINING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AS A
MEDIUM-PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE DECLINING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SMALLER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A SWELL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN THE PRESENT ONE WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY AND PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF AGAIN BUT
STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 923 AM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY. THE
INVERSION WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 6000 FT AS TRADES RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...QUESADA
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