730
FXHW60 PHFO 100130
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES
RETURN. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. WE'LL SEE A
BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE A
RETURN TO RELATIVELY DRY TRADES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RADAR SHOWED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OAHU, WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY
SUNNY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING SO MUCH RAIN TO THE AREA
THIS WEEK WILL WEAKEN, FILL, AND MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL STRENGTHEN AND BRING EASTERLY TRADES BACK TO THE STATE
SATURDAY. APART FROM A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAINLY FOR THE
BIG ISLAND MONDAY, THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY DRY TRADES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA WILL BE MOST FREQUENT AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND RATHER TYPICAL OCTOBER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
GENTLE SEABREEZE AND LAND BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD BACK INTO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY BUT MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OR EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WINDWARD
WATERS AND CHANNELS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH WEAKER WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS DUE TO A TROUGH WEST OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS,
GENTLE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL FADE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT IS SET TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, THEN PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES, BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH-SHORE SURF WILL DECLINE
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW
LONG PERIOD SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
SMALL TO MODERATE SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES AS A MEDIUM-PERIOD SWELL PRODUCED BY LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS PEAKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
THEN DECLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALLER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND
AND FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SWELL SIMILAR TO, OR
SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN, THE CURRENT ONE WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND
PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF AGAIN BUT STAYING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
AS LOCAL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS EACH
DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY TRADES SATURDAY
AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY ON PART OF THE BIG ISLAND,
INCLUDING NEAR KONA. THE INVERSION WILL REFORM AROUND 6500 FEET
SATURDAY AS TRADES RETURN.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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