238
FXHW60 PHFO 101323
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
323 AM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES RETURNING. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS. A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE A RETURN TO RELATIVELY DRY TRADES THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT 3 AM HST, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING ALONG MOSTLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BRING EASTERLY TRADES BACK TO THE REGION. APART FROM A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAINLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY, THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY TRADES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA WILL BE MOST FREQUENT AT
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RATHER
TYPICAL OCTOBER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADE WINDS BUILD BACK INTO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRFIELDS.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OR EXPECTED.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH WEAKER WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
LINGER WEST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS, GENTLE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL FADE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT IS SET TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, THEN PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST- FACING SHORES, BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL DECLINE
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW
LONG PERIOD SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL DECLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOURCE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL SURF
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES TO BEGIN TO FADE TODAY. A SMALLER LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PROLONG SMALL SURF THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT WILL FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL,
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND
PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS EACH DAY. SMALL,
MODERATE-PERIOD WEST AND EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY MULTIPLE PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY ON PART OF THE BIG ISLAND,
INCLUDING NEAR KONA. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 5500-6500
FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...QUESADA
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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