692
FXHW60 PHFO 101901
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
901 AM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES RETURNING. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA
LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS LEEWARD BIG ISLAND. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE A RETURN TO
RELATIVELY DRY TRADES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND (ALONG THE
COAST OF THE NORTH KONA, SOUTH KONA, AND KAU DISTRICTS) IN WHAT
HAS TURNED INTO AN UNUSUALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY MORNING THERE.
ESSENTIALLY ALL HIRES AND SHORT TERM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (HREF,
REFS, HRRR- HI, FV3, ARW, NBM, ETC.) SUGGESTS THAT THESE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR CONCERNING, BUT BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE, AN UPDATE WAS PUSHED OUT THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES AND QPF FOR TODAY ALONG THE
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND COAST. KAUAI IS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE SOME
CONTINUED PASSING SHOWERS TODAY, SO SHORT-TERM SHOWER CHANCES WERE
TRENDED UPWARD THERE AS WELL FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHER THAN THESE UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENTLY AT 3 AM HST, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING ALONG MOSTLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BRING EASTERLY TRADES BACK TO THE REGION. APART FROM A BRIEF
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAINLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY, THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY TRADES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA WILL BE MOST FREQUENT AT
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND RATHER
TYPICAL OCTOBER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
TO EAST AND SOUTH FACING COASTS AND SLOPES OF KAUAI FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FILL IN
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ALSO PERSISTING
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE KONA DISTRICTS OF
THE BIG ISLAND, AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PHKO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THESE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE TRADES.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST
AND SOUTH FACING COASTS AND SLOPES OF KAUAI, ALONG WITH THE
STRETCH OF LOWER SLOPES FROM SOUTH POINT TO KAILUA-KONA ON THE BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH
WEAKER WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS A
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS THEN
DECREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS.
STRENGTHENING TRADES ARE THEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL FADE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A NEW LONG-PERIOD REINFORCEMENT IS SET
TO ARRIVE ON TODAY, THEN PEAK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST- FACING SHORES, BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL DECLINE
SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW
LONG PERIOD SWELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL DECLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOURCE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL SURF
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES TO BEGIN TO FADE TODAY. A SMALLER LONG-
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PROLONG SMALL SURF THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT WILL FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL,
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND
PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS EACH DAY. SMALL,
MODERATE-PERIOD WEST AND EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY MULTIPLE PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 323 AM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY ON PART OF THE BIG ISLAND,
INCLUDING NEAR KONA. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 5500-6500
FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...VAUGHAN
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE...WALSH
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