731
FXHW60 PHFO 120601
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
801 PM HST SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE BACKGROUND TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, ALLOWING
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
NO UPDATES MADE. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER SHELTERED LEEWARD LOCATIONS DUE TO LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES AS A RESULT OF WEAK TO MODERATE BACKGROUND WINDS. OVER THE
BIG ISLAND, TYPICAL INTERIOR CLOUD BUILDUPS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED,
WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. CIMSS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
A WEAK LOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER AND
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON ISLAND
WEATHER. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD, REACHING
THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE BY LATE MONDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH, WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. THE REMAINING
ISLANDS MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS
WELL.
BY WEDNESDAY, A MODERATE TRADES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION,
STRENGTHENING TO BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MORNING PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM
THE EAST COULD BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TERRAIN
SHELTERED/LEEWARD AREAS DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS. WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY SHOWERS, AND VFR TO PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE BIG ISLAND FROM APUA POINT
TO SOUTH CAPE TO PHKO TO 15 NM NE OF PHKO FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ABOVE 2500 FEET DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE OVER 10Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DECREASING BY MID-WEEK INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE.
SLIGHT DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED, THEN TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY, PRODUCING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES, BUT IT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL DECLINE
GRADUALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT A NEW LONG-PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BUMP IN SURF
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A SMALL LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SMALL SURF
IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR NORTH-FACING SHORES. SURF COULD DECREASE A
LITTLE ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SMALL, LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAKS TUESDAY. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BOOST NORTH SHORE SURF TO MODERATE LEVELS. A
MODERATE MID PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
PROJECTED LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS EACH DAY. SMALL,
MODERATE-PERIOD WEST AND EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY MULTIPLE PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE BACKGROUND WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN
TO NEAR-CRITICAL VALUES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND KBDI REMAINS BELOW 500 STATEWIDE. INVERSION HEIGHTS
RANGE FROM NEAR 3000 FEET OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TO
NEAR 8000 FEET OVER THE EASTERN END.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...WALSH
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FOSTER
FIRE WEATHER...VAUGHAN
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