289
FXHW60 PHFO 121905
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
905 AM HST MON OCT 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, ALLOWING SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
A FEW SPOTTY HEAVIER SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING ON RADAR
MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN BIG ISLAND. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM HST MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENTLY AS OF 3AM HST, RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS GOING ON
ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK LOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS
FEATURE WILL LINGER AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH
LITTLE EFFECT ON ISLAND WEATHER. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WESTWARD, REACHING THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE LATER
TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH, WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
THE REMAINING ISLANDS MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS AS WELL.
BY WEDNESDAY, MODERATE TRADES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION,
STRENGTHENING TO BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST
COULD BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR PHTO AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS.
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EAST
TO WEST TODAY AS A WEAK LOW FILLS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. TRADES WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE SCA TO ADDITIONAL WATERS.
SMALL SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES INTO THE
EVENING. A FRESH, LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, PUSHING SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL DECLINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE MAIN
SOURCE TO PRODUCE SURF AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE DURING THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH A SMALL LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ALSO
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND.
SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL SLOWLY
DECLINES. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY
AS SMALL WIND WAVES AND TINY EAST SWELL PERSIST. CHOPPY SURF WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 AM HST MON OCT 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. DRY AIR WILL BRING RH LEVELS DOWN TO NEAR- CRITICAL
VALUES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 4000-11000 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...TSAMOUS
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...WROE
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