583
FXCA62 TJSJ 152101
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 PM AST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING WET AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS, DETERIORATING MARINE
AND COASTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE PRESENCE OF STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE SEEN OVER THE ISLANDS
PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
AND URBAN AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
MEANWHILE, RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WERE OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.0 TO 2.0
INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR UTUADO AND PONCE.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SECTORS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO, INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. WITH THE ANTICIPATED
ACTIVITY PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE
UNSTABLE AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION IS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AND
WINDS SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES OVER
THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE RISK TO OBSERVE FLOODING REMAINS
ELEVATED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE
MONITOR THE FORECAST AND ANY ADVISORY OR WARNING FOR THEIR AREA.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 656 AM AST FRI NOV 15 2024/
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ISLANDS, A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ROLL FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION
AROUND 850 MB, WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THIS
LEVEL. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE GENERALLY LOW, EXCEPT JUST SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX, WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATES TOWARD THE EAST AND MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PULL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BOUNCE BACK, AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW-ELEVATED AND URBAN AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
CONDS ARE MOSTLY VFR, BUT IN AREAS OF SHRA/RA AND ALG THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF PR MVFR IS SEEN--MAINLY DUE TO CIGS. SHRA HAVE RETURNED
TO THE INTERIOR OF PR MOVG NE AT ARND 7 KTS. SOME WILL REACH THE NRN
COAST. THE SHRA WILL CONT THRU ABT 16/02Z OVR LAND BUT PERSIST OVR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THRU 16/15Z. LLVL WINDS ARE MOSTLY SW OVER
PUERTO RICO AND VRB OVR THE USVI, BUT WINDS ARE NE NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN HOLDING N OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM WINDS NW 60 KTS ARND 180 MB.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELLS. MOISTURE
REMNANTS ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND PASSAGES.
BEACH FORECAST
PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
FOR THE BEACHES OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO FAJARDO,
CULEBRA, AND SAINT THOMAS AND ST. JOHN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FURTHER STARTING TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER
BREAKING WAVES ANTICIPATED.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-005-
008.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ002-010-
012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ712-716.
SHORT TERM...DSR/GRS
LONG TERM....ERG
AVIATION...WS
PUBLIC DESK...CVB
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