315
FXCA62 TJSJ 171652 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1252 PM AST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPDATE
THE VAD WIND PROFILE AND THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING FROM
SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO SHOWED THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY
PASSED AND WAS ABOUT 5-6 KFT ABOVE THE STATION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME CONVECTION, BUT SINCE MIDNIGHT,
MOST RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SAN JUAN. RAINFALL THERE WAS 1.05 INCHES
MOST OF WHICH FELL IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
ISLAND AND IN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT SAN JUAN SO FAR WAS 85 DEGREES DESPITE BEING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME IN AFTER MONDAY. A
SECOND FRONT WILL USHER THAT IN ALONG WITH SOME MORE SHOWERS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECTATIONS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING HAVE BEEN REDUCED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER SWELL EVENT IS ON ITS WAY TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ISLANDS
AND SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY HAVE RISEN ABOVE 8 FEET FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH SURF WILL THEN BE SEEN AGAIN IN ABOUT 6 TO 10 HOURS. HIGH
TIDES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FOR THE DAY, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
CONDITIONS WHERE SHRA ARE FOUND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BTWN MVFR AND
VFR DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AT THIS
TIME MODELS SUGGEST COOLER LLVL FLOW FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
BEGINNING ARND 18/00Z THAT WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO PILE UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MDT RAIN. CLD TOPS
WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN HOWEVER. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN SOME
AREAS TO AS LOW AS 4 SM, AND MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED. LLVL WINDS
6-12 KT FROM THE N-NE WITH HIR GUSTS NR SHRA. MAX WINDS W 40-60
KTS BTWN FL330-530 HIGHEST AT FL403.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
741-742.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WS
PUBLIC/UPPER AIR....MMC
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