685
FXCA62 TJSJ 282100
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST FRI FEB 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
TONIGHT, EXPECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND
FILTERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA,
VIEQUES, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TOMORROW DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO, BUT ALSO MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL FILTER IN, CREATING HAZY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THIS MORNING, SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO, AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES. BY THE
AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO, GENERATING MINOR
URBAN FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES,
ACCUMULATIONS IN ARECIBO REACHED UP TO 2.75 INCHES APPROXIMATELY,
ELSEWHERE RANGING FROM 0.30 UP TO 1.00 INCH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ACROSS URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS.
IN CONTRAST, TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAINOUS AND RURAL AREAS REMAINED
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. WINDS PERSISTED FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, VIEQUES, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID-70S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE 60S IN HIGHER TERRAINS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION BETWEEN THE MOISTURE BROUGHT BY
RECENT SURFACE TROUGHS AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED, MAINLY
CONCENTRATED IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE
IN, MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION, LEADING TO HAZY SKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY AFFECTING THE
EASTERNMOST PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. AT THE 925-MB LEVEL, TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. WHILE NIGHTTIME
COOLING WILL STILL OCCUR, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN
HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 448 AM AST FRI FEB 28 2025/
BOTH POCKETS OF MORE HUMID AND POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL REACH
THE REGION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOW SAHARAN DUST
CONCENTRATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES, AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE AN TROUGH MOVES IN TUESDAY AND
INTO LATE WEDNESDAY, INCREASING INSTABILITY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS AND FRONTAL LOWS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING
IN EAST TO EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WINDFLOW
WILL STEER MORE FREQUENT PATCHES OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY ONWARDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL BE ABOVE
1.5 INCHES (ABOVE NORMAL) WITH THESE MOIST PATCHES. MOISTURE FROM
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA COULD ALSO REACH US BY
FRIDAY. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BY BELOW 700 MB, DURING THE
PERIOD. A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL INCLUDE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS STEERED TOWARDS ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORECAST
TO FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH/NORTHWEST SECTORS
OF PUERTO RICO. WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH AND
INCREASING MOISTURE, AND BOOST IN THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY
MIDWEEK. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VIS, AND LOW CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY FOR TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH
28/23Z. SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN PR
AND TJSJ. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE E-SE AT 12-16 KTS, WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB
BELOW 10 KTS AFT 23Z.
MARINE
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
UP TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN,
PROMOTING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD PROMOTE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA OVER SOME AREAS.
BEACH FORECAST
TONIGHT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, WHILE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. INCREASING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RISK IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE FOR NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA AND
USVI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMC
LONG TERM...MRR
AVIATION...MMC/CAM
PUBLIC...YZR
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