958
FXCA62 TJSJ 071824
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST MON JUL 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHOPPY SEAS
AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
* DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PR EACH DAY. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE USVI AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AND
A LIMITED HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
URBAN AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. AS OF 2 PM, RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE UP TO 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LAS MARIAS,
MAYAGUEZ, AND CABO ROJO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE
UPPER-80S TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ISLANDS, AND FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE WIND WAS FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 32
MPH OBSERVED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAVE
MINOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE USVI AND WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PR. A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WIND SURGE WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AND A LIMITED HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
/FROM PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 500 AM AST MON JUL 7 2025/
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, STEERED BY A STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH, MAINTAINING
NEAR-NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. A SURFACE WIND SURGE WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY, INITIALLY ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION—REINFORCED
BY A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
NORTHEAST—WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TUTT SHIFTS OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERLY TRADE WIND DISTURBANCES
APPROACH THE AREA.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, REDUCING RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EVEN DURING THE
DRIEST PERIODS, AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT—DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS—REMAINS LIKELY EACH DAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY, WHEN VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO EXCEED TYPICAL SEASONAL THRESHOLDS. COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY; HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER SPREADING OVER THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HAZY SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND CONTINUED
SUPPRESSION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT A CONCERN UNTIL SUNDAY, OTHER
WEATHER HAZARDS—INCLUDING PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, GUSTY WINDS,
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING—REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND TJPS/TJBQ THRU 07/22Z. ACROSS THE USVI TERMINALS AND TJSJ,
MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF -RA. THE 07/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED E-ESE WINDS UP TO 23 KT BLO FL060.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROMPTING CAUTION FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA
PASSAGE EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.
BEACH FORECAST
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROMOTE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN, NORTHERN, AND
SOUTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, AND ST. CROIX. LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS OFTEN OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF GROINS, JETTIES,
REEFS, AND PIERS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DSR/GRS
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