364
FXCA62 TJSJ 220718
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
* PLEASANT TEMPERATURES, WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS, WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE USVI AND PR THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
* THE NORTH- AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF PR AND THE USVI WILL HAVE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN DROP
TO LOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
* OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF PR AND THE USVI AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
A FEW SHOWERS MOVED INLAND FROM THE SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WAS LIMITED, RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW VERY ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS CLOSE TO ONE HALF INCH SINCE SUNSET ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. OUTSIDE OF THESE BRIEF SHOWERS, CONDITIONS
WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND SKIES STAYED MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WERE ONE TO THREE DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT,
DIPPING INTO THE MID-70S ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS, AND INTO
THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, GIVING ANOTHER
EARLY TASTE OF FRIITO NAVIDENO. WINDS OVER LAND REMAINED LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE AN EXCELLENT WEATHER DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY, AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONLY A FEW BRIEF MORNING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS MAY REACH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA,
AND THE NORTHERN USVI AS COOL NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH ONLY VERY
LIMITED, BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, AND NO HAZARD
RISKS ARE EXPECTED.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS, BUT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A GENERALLY DRY
AND FAVORABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR PLANS. ON MONDAY, A PATCHY WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP IF MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS
LINE UP, BUT COVERAGE WILL STAY LIMITED. A MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH, WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LIKELIHOOD OF A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE CHANCE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH WESTWARD OR WEAKEN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RISE
TO AROUND 700 MB AS THE TRADE-WIND INVERSION WEAKENS.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE LONG-TERM
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD A MORE ADVECTIVE REGIME. A
SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MIGRATE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE BREEZY TRADE WINDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. UNDER THIS
PATTERN, PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES HAVE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERY
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE COOLING.
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT 925-MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, ROUGHLY AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO TYPICAL
NOVEMBER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE PERIODS, PARTICULARLY
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, WHEN TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR-NORMAL
LEVELS, AROUND THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
THE WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WILL EXPERIENCE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
PREVAILING VFR THRU THE PRD WITH ONLY BRIEF VCSH AT TJSJ/USVI THRU
22/14Z AND PSBL NR TJPS 22/17–20Z. MVFR CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND
IMPACTS UNLIKELY. SFC WINDS LGT/VRB, BCMG NE 10–14 KT AFT 22/14Z,
THEN RTN LGT/VRB AFT SUNSET. STEERING FLOW FM THE NE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW AND ITS
COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, WEAKENING THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FROM
TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK. THUS, EXPECT CONFUSED SEAS DUE TO LOCALLY
CHOPPY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A LONG-PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
ARRIVING BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 314 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2025
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST-
FACING BEACHES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LOW FROM SUNDAY
TO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, STARTING TUESDAY EVENING, THE RISK IS
FORECASTED TO RISE BACK TO MODERATE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND
CONFUSED SEA CONDITIONS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
KEY MESSAGES/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST....CAM
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