973
FXCA62 TJSJ 241727
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
127 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
* PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE USVI AND PR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
* BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AND POSSIBLY
BECOMING WINDY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF PR
AND THE USVI AT TIMES. REGARDLESS, THERE IS NO FLOODING RISK
FORECAST FOR ANY OF THE ISLANDS.
* LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY, INCREASING TO MODERATE ON
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OR PR AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REMAINED LIGHT. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 80S ACROSS THE URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS, WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYED IN THE 70S. A
PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW KEPT CONDITIONS PLEASANT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ALSO SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
TONIGHT, WE ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN THE FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AT NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS REGION. DESPITE THIS SETUP, THERE
REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THESE DAYS TO MOVE QUICKLY RATHER THAN
STALL. THIS ALSO LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
OVERALL, AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, AN ADVECTIVE TRADE-
WIND PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM, SUPPORTING A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY FEATURE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TRADE WINDS. THESE FACTORS WILL BRING A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PWAT GUIDANCE INDICATES VALUES REMAINING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
DATA.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE JET STREAK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA, WHILE THE RIDGING PATTERN WEAKENS AS A POLAR
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.FROM SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN
STRONGER BREEZES. THE BREEZIEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES MAY ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 925-MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING TRANSITION TOWARD MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTY WINDS, DIMINISHING AFTER
24/23Z BECOMING MORE VRB INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AT 25/13Z. SOME VCSH
ARE FORECAST ALONG TJSJ, TJPS,TISX, AND TIST DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN, PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT, EXPECT CONFUSED SEAS
CAUSED BY A MIX OF LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF LONG-
PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARRIVING BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, PROMOTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM TONIGHT OR TUESDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT CONFUSED SEAS CAUSED BY A MIX OF LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS
AND A BRIEF LONG-PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARRIVING BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL LIKELY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
LOCAL CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 108 PM AST MON NOV 24 2025
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME MODERATE ON TUESDAY EVENING,
DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND A BRIEF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGH ALONG THE
NORTH- FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS. ALWAYS CHECK THE BEACH
FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OUT, AND AVOID SWIMMING AT BEACHES WITH A
HIGH RISK. FOR LOCATION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION, VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC
LONG TERM...YZR
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