654
FXCA62 TJSJ 271732
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
132 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
* CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS, LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION, AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG EXPOSED WATERS AND
BEACHES ACROSS THE ISLANDS, HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND
BEACHGOERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
STABLE, WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
* NEW YEAR’S EVE: SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS, WITH A LIMITED FLOODING AND LIGHTNING RISK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FLUCTUATE.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. A FEW
CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING AROUND NOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
DOWNWIND OF THE USVI. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP OVER THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY MINOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A LOW-TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONT NEAR 26N WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY BY MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROMOTE WEAK STEERING WINDS AT THE SURFACE,
WITH WEAK LAND AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS PREVAILING EACH DAY OVER
THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS (LESS THAN 1 INCH), AS GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT DROPPING TO -2 STD OF NEAR 0.80 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE CONTENT IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE, AND
THE WEAK STEERING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS AT NIGHT OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A DRY AND STABLE WINTER PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE, SUPPORTED BY POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD
AND WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL FAVOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER,
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DURING THIS SAME PERIOD, AN EASTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE THE WIND
PATTERN, MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT TRANSITION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES ITS AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ISLANDS, IT WILL STILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS SETUP MAY ALLOW MOISTURE TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD
THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST SENSITIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE MONA PASSAGE, WHILE OTHER AREAS EXPERIENCE MORE LIMITED
EFFECTS.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
FREQUENT IN FAVORED AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO AND EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND NEARBY WATERS, PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A WARMER-THAN-NORMAL FEEL ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE, AS MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND GUIDANCE
OSCILLATES BETWEEN WETTER AND DRIER SOLUTIONS. THIS VARIABILITY IS
NOT NECESSARILY NEGATIVE, AS NEW YEAR’S EVE CURRENTLY TRENDS
DRIER WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THOUGH MARINE AND BEACH
HAZARDS MAY CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TJPS FM 27/18-22Z DUE TO -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PR. THE
27/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED ENE WINDS UP TO 12 KT BLO FL060.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, PULSES OF LONG-PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION,
MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SEAS AROUND 7 FEET.
LOOKING AHEAD, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS SEAS
FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN USVI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN PR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
BEACHES OF PR, CULEBRA AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN. PULSES OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK,
AND THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ711-712-
716-723-741-742.
SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...DSR
KEY...MNG
BEACH/MARINE...DSR
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