011
FXCA62 TJSJ 211756
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
156 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
* CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND BEACHGOERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
WHICH COULD CAUSE OUTDOOR ITEMS TO BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED.
* A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLY
TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
BREEZY CONDITION PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH REPORTED BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. QUICK PASSING SHOWERS LEFT MOSTLY MINOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WHILE CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID-80S IN GENERAL ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
A SURGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY
FROM TONIGHT ONWARD. DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER, EXPECT
PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ALTHOUGH THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND -7C,
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD NOT FAVOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE BREEZY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS.
LONG TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM AST WED JAN 21 2026
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CARRY FROM THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD INTO SATURDAY, AS THE MOISTURE FIELD FROM THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION PROMOTING ABOVE SEASONAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES (1.50 TO NEAR 2 INCHES). SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WETTEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH ADVECTIVE SHOWERS
STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW AND CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR. IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE
AND MOISTURE FIELD MOVES WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. PATCHES OF DRIER AND MOIST AIR WILL
THEN PROMOTE SEASONAL (<1.50 IN) TO BELOW SEASONAL (<1.20 IN) PWAT
VALUES OVER THE AREA. A DOMINANT HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL ESTABLISH A GENERALLY MORE SEASONAL EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW, MOVING ADVECTIVE SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, LOCALIZED EFFECTS MAY STILL INDUCE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THOUGH NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MOST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO BELOW 800 MB. THE LIMITED
WIND RISK WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEKEND. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL VALUES, OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO FORECAST OVER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION TO START THE WORKWEEK AND A
SHIFT IN EASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, -SHRA EN ROUTE FROM THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CAUSING
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TISX/TIST/TJSJ. THE 21/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED E-ENE WINDS UP TO 28 KT BLO FL080. STRONG TRADES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS BTW 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 116 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TIGHTENING THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROMOTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF WORKWEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 116 PM AST WED JAN 21 2026
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING CULEBRA, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, DUE TO ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH BREAKING WAVES
UP TO 6 FEET. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING
THE WARNING FLAG SYSTEM AND TO FAVOR BEACHES WITH A LOWER RIP
CURRENT RISK, SUCH AS THOSE ALONG PUERTO RICO'S WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WHERE THE RISK
REMAINS MODERATE, BEACHGOERS CAN EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, WHICH MAY STILL RESULT IN UNSECURED
OBJECTS BEING BLOWN AROUND, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOST EXPOSED
LOCATIONS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS BOTH IN AND NEAR THE
WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
723-726-733-741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ735.
SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...MRR
AVIATION...DSR
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