537
FXCA62 TJSJ 220904
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
* A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY
INTO FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
* CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND BEACHGOERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD CAUSE OUTDOOR ITEMS TO BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY
MODERATELY STRONG WINDS RESULTED IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS WERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE INSIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THEY
MOVED QUICKLY UNDER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS WERE
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS. ACCORDING TO UNOFFICIAL
STATIONS, PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA REPORTED WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 29 TO 36 MPH, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.
UNDER THIS PATTERN, THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS AN
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY A
MOISTURE FIELD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES,
WHICH ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, MARGINALLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
LATER IN THE DAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY
OF SHOWERS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE PONDING IN LOW-LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ON LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY, AS THE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD MOVE INTO THE AREA,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN, BECOMING MORE FROM THE EAST UP TO 15
KNOTS. THE EVOLVING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SIMILAR WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
WITH FREQUENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY STRONGER
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TOWARD SOMEWHAT DRIER
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE
CONTENT AND A REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL
WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED, DRIVEN BY EASTERLY WINDS.
LOCAL EFFECTS, SUCH AS DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN INTERACTIONS, MAY
STILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS. OVERALL, A VARIABLE BUT
MOSTLY TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ANTICIPATED,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OR
MEANINGFUL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE NEXT WEEK AS
THE MOISTURE FIELD FROM THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ISLANDS. PATCHES
OF DRIER AND MOIST AIR WILL THEN RESULT IN SEASONAL (<1.50 IN) TO
BELOW SEASONAL (<1.20 IN) PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST AMPLE PATCHES OF DRIER AIR
WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL LOWS WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH VARIATIONS OF ESE AND ENE FLOW, POSSIBLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL STEER PASSING
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO BELOW
800 MB. SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, LOCALIZED EFFECTS MAY
STILL INDUCE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THOUGH NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL VALUES WITH OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FOG ALSO FORECAST OVER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
DAY. DURING THE PERIOD, SOME VCSH TO SHRA WOULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST, TISX & TJSJ; HOWEVER, SOME VCSH TO SHRA
WOULD RESULT IN LOWER CIGS AND A REDUCTION IN VIS ACROSS SOME
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ACROSS TJSJ & TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE E UP TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM
22/13Z. MORE CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST FROM 23/00Z AS A MOISTURE FIELD
FROM AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN
TURN DETERIORATE MARINE CONDITIONS, BEFORE WEAKENING AND RESULTING IN
MORE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TODAY, AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND INCREASING
SHOWER FREQUENCY. A NORTHERLY SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 459 AM AST THU JAN 22 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS FOR CULEBRA, AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, DUE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 6 TO LOCALLY 7 FEET. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO RESULT IN UNSECURED OBJECTS BEING BLOWN
AROUND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING
THE WARNING FLAG SYSTEM AND TO FAVOR BEACHES WITH LOWER RIP
CURRENT RISK, SUCH AS THOSE ALONG PUERTO RICO'S WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTS. UP TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WHERE THE RISK REMAINS MODERATE,
BEACHGOERS CAN STILL EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, WHICH MAY STILL RESULT IN UNSECURED OBJECTS BEING BLOWN
AROUND, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST FRIDAY FOR AMZ712-723.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR AMZ716-726-733-
741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ735.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
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