342
FXCA62 TJSJ 221824
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
* HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH DANGEROUS
SEAS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSING A RISK TO SMALL
CRAFT AND SWIMMERS. WHILE CURRENT ADVISORIES EXTEND THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, HAZARDS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY OR BEYOND.
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY CAUSE
UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS TO BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR.
* FREQUENT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY, WITH FREQUENT TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA, AS WELL AS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MOISTURE MOVED IN, THOUGH ACTIVITY REMAINED FAST-MOVING.
RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL PEAKED AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO, WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE GENERALLY LOWER, UP TO AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 60S TO MID-70S
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS VIEQUES, CULEBRA,
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR
PEAKED IN THE MID-80S. TRADE WINDS REMAINED STRONG, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 20–25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30–40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTROL THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PATTERN, MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE
WINDS THAT PULL ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND SUPPORT FAST-
MOVING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL EASE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO BECOME SLOWER-MOVING AND LESS
FREQUENT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BY
SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING JUST WEST OF THE REGION
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALOFT, COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
HELP SUSTAIN CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS PRESENT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
ANOTHER JET MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA, ALLOWING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO COOL
AGAIN AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE PATCHY MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE MOST FREQUENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
DOMINATED BY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND AREAS FIRST, WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS REACHING FARTHER INLAND.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHTNING,
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. OVERALL RISK LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED, WITH A LIMITED
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WIND-RELATED HAZARDS AS DRIER AND
MORE PATCHY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE NEXT WEEK AS
THE MOISTURE FIELD FROM THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE WEST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER THE ISLANDS. PATCHES
OF DRIER AND MOIST AIR WILL THEN RESULT IN SEASONAL (<1.50 IN) TO
BELOW SEASONAL (<1.20 IN) PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST AMPLE PATCHES OF DRIER AIR
WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL LOWS WILL
MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH VARIATIONS OF ESE AND ENE FLOW, POSSIBLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL STEER PASSING
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO BELOW
800 MB. SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, LOCALIZED EFFECTS MAY
STILL INDUCE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THOUGH NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONAL VALUES WITH OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FOG ALSO FORECAST OVER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
PASSING SHRA/VCSH, W/ ISO TSRA PSBL, WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THRU
THE PD, RESULTING IN BRIEF CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS. BKN CIGS 015–030 PSBL
AT TIMES IN SHRA/TSRA, ESP LATE TNGT INTO FRI AM AS SHRA COVG INCRS
W/ DEEPER MSTR ACRS THE AREA. E WINDS 15–25 KT W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT
THRU 22/23Z, OCASNLY HIGHER NR SHRA/TSRA. STRONG LOW-LVL FLOW (25–30
KT) THRU FL005–010 MAY RESULT IN TURB AND WIND IMPACTS. WINDS WEAKEN
TO 8–12 KT BTW 22/23Z–23/13Z, THEN INCRS AGAIN TO 15–20 KT AFTWD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DRIVEN BY STRONG ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND FLOW, WILL SUPPORT
FREQUENT SHOWERS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, AND
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY EASE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THEN ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING CHOPPY SEAS. PULSES OF NORTHERLY
SWELL MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN SEAS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 224 PM AST THU JAN 22 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. THESE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE PRODUCING CHOPPY
SEAS AND ELEVATED BREAKING WAVES ALONG EXPOSED BEACHES, MAINTAINING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY EXTEND INTO
SATURDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
BLOWING UNSECURED OBJECTS ALONG THE COAST. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ONCE THE HIGH RISK ELSEWHERE SUBSIDES.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST FRIDAY FOR AMZ712-723.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST FRIDAY FOR AMZ716-726-733-
741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ735.
DAY-CREW
ICP/GRS
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