501
FXCA62 TJSJ 061854
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
* HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH-
FACING BEACHES IN PR CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE
USVI
* WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS PR AND THE USVI FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHOWERS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
* PULSES OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS FOR BEACHGOERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, ANOTHER,
STRONGER LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE
MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED OVER THE REGION TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS OF 2 PM, THE TJUA RADAR DETECTED NO
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 7:24 AM. CURRENT SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES INDICATE 0.87 TO 1.11
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO (INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA) AND AROUND
1.2 INCHES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW, DRIER AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER
THE REGION. AS OF 2 PM, OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL STATIONS REPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOCALLY AROUND 90 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ISLANDS, AND IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TODAY, VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
DRIER AIR AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PASSING SHOWERS OVER SOME WINDWARD
SECTORS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN PR.
BY TOMORROW, APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
VEERING FLOW FROM LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW MORNING TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO THEN MORE NORTHERLY ON
SUNDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST, MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PWAT VALUES REACHING AROUND 1.6 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, PROMOTING A MORE HUMID PATTERN WITH SHOWERS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PROMPTING A
LIMITED FLOODING RISK. A JET STREAM WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
REGION PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY, HOWEVER 500MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WARM AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE BELOW
NORMAL. A LIMITED FLOODING RISK WILL ALSO BE PRESENT EARLY SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS AND/OR MOVES OVER THE REGION.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO FORECAST OVER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL TOMORROW AND BELOW SEASONAL ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INCREASED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
AREA. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT WIND DRIVEN PASSING SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES,
CULEBRA, AND THE USVI. UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND AS NOTED IN THE 925
MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC, VEERING WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND LIFTING THE
REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA, LIKELY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AND ELEVATING THE FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ADDITIONALLY, MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE, AS
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ALOFT.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
DRIVEN BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS UNDER A PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ATLANTIC, BRINGING TRADE WIND SHOWERS. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ESTABLISH, BRINGING INCREASED
STABILITY TO THE REGION. FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM, AND 925 MB GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE TO ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 253 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
ARE S, BUT VEERING TO THE W TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TO
THE NW BY EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO CALM AND LIGHT
BY 06/23, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 07/14Z. AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE SHOWER FREQUENCY FOR NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN, SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE UP TO 5 FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, IMPROVING BRIEFLY
TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW, A WEAK PULSE OF NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CREATE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND
INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 253 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAZARDOUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS NORTH-FACING BEACHES, WHERE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK, DETERIORATING MARINE
AND COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND
INCREASING BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS, ALONG WITH LONGER WAVE PERIODS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE PUBLIC IS URGED TO STAY
OUT OF THE WATER IN AFFECTED AREAS AND TO CONTINUE MONITORING
OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PRZ010.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PRZ012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ712-741.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MRR
LONG TERM...YZR
MARINE/BEACH FCST...LIS
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