851
FXCA62 TJSJ 070837
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
* WIND SHIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROMOTE A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW, BRINGING A MARKED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
* PRIMARY HAZARD WINDOW TONIGHT–EARLY SUNDAY: ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL RAISE THE FLOODING RISK TO ELEVATED LEVELS
ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT PONDING ON ROADS AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS, LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING, AND A
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
* SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN/NORTHERN PR ON SUNDAY, WITH A LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
* PULSES OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS FOR BEACHGOERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, ANOTHER,
STRONGER LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE
MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PR'S ATLANTIC COASTLINE REMAINS HIGH, WHILE IT IS
STILL MODERATE FOR THE USVI'S NORTH-FACING BEACHES. THE WINDS WERE
MAINLY CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY COMPONENT
WAS PRESENT. NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-60S OR EVEN LOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS OF PR AND IN THE LOW TO
MID-70S OR UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST OF PR AND THE USVI.
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM A
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY
ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT RAIN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING, THIS SHIFT WILL DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE,
EXPECT SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE PR FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD.
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING: THIS IS THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR
WEATHER HAZARDS. INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ELEVATE THE
FLOODING RISK TO ELEVATED LEVELS FOR PR'S NORTHERN HALF. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPECT PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED
AREAS, LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING, WITHOUT RULING
OUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
SUNDAY: THE PATTERN BECOMES WETTER ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS.
DESPITE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE USVI, WE HAVE A LIMITED
RISK OF FLOODING IN THESE AREAS, WHICH MEANS WE CAN EXPECT PONDING
IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING. HOWEVER, WE
ENCOURAGE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO MONITOR WEATHER UPDATES IN
CASE WE NEED TO RAISE THE FLOOD RISK.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY,
MAINTAINING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT BEHIND THE FRONT,
THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS LOW.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK; THUS, MONITOR
YOUR OFFICIAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
A DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (0.80 TO 1.10
INCHES) DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, VIEQUES,
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, VEERING WINDS FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
WILL PULL THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY (WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
OF APPROXIMATELY 1.50 INCHES), INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WEATHER PATTERNS WILL MOVE INTO
MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER UPDATES AND PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHRA/-SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA, CREATING MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
CALM TO LIGHT/VRB THRU 07/13Z, THEN WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
W-WNW, TURNING MORE N BY LATE THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AT 5 TO 15
KT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHRA. BKN TO OVC FROM FL020-FL060 IS
POSSIBLE BTWN 07/18-0806 ACROSS W/N PR AND POSSIBLY OVER THE USVI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING, LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH. BY TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE. TWO NEW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES, THE FIRST ONE ON TODAY, AND A
LARGER, LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE BY THIS EVENING.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WEST, NORTH, AND
EASTERN BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, AS SEAS BUILD BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET AROUND 13 TO 15
SECONDS. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF PR, SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN USVI AND
CULEBRA FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST UPDATES AND
HEED ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PRZ010.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PRZ012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON AST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ712-741-742.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ712-716-741-742.
KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CAM
LONG TERM....GRS
BEACH FORECAST...DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page