008
FXCA62 TJSJ 071834
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
* A MORE VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD NORTH OF THE REGION.
* A LIMITED TO MODERATE FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.
* HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE AND A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN EFFECT
FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS.
* A LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
THE MORNING START WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST PART OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CENTRAL
SECTION AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH GOOD PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. FOR THE WEST SIDE, SOME
BRIEF SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS RECORDED. DURING THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST, PUSHING THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MAIN ISLANDS, MOSTLY RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES. AT 12
PM, DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL SECTIONS, AFFECTING PONCE AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST INTO
SALINAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE IN THE LIMITED WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY; HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS REPORTED HALF OF AN
INCH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS AND
MUCH FRESHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST, SHIFTING COMPLETELY TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE, FROM THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. UNDER THIS PATTERN, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RESULT MAINLY IN URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN POORLY DRAINED
AREAS, AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND WET ROADWAYS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, IN COMBINATION WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. UNDER THIS PATTERN, WHILE
A MOISTURE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS, IT
WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH, MAINLY BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS, WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DESPITE THE LINGERING MOISTURE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ONLY
MINOR FLOODING ANTICIPATED, PRIMARILY ALONG LOW-LYING ROADWAYS AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
BY MONDAY, THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT FARTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN
COMBINATION WITH THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, RESULTING IN PLEASANT DAYS WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES MAY BE OBSERVED MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND EVEN IN COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026, ISSUED AT 437 AM AST SAT FEB
7 2026...
A DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (0.80 TO 1.10
INCHES) DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, VIEQUES,
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, VEERING WINDS FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
WILL PULL THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY (WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
OF APPROXIMATELY 1.50 INCHES), INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WEATHER PATTERNS WILL MOVE INTO
MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER UPDATES AND PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL; HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL DEVELOP AS SHRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
RESULTING IN REDUCED VIS AND LOWERING CIGS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION. VCSH AND SHRA WILL IMPACT MOST TAF SITES,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 07/23Z AND 08/15Z, LOWERING CIGS AND
TEMPORARILY REDUCING VIS. WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE W–NW AROUND
10 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS (GUSTS) NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER TO THE N–NW AROUND 07/23Z AND BECOME LIGHT. BKN–OVC
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN FL020–FL060 IS ONGOING AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND
INCREASE SHOWER FREQUENCY. PULSES OF NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT OVER THOSE AREAS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 12
FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGER, LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL REACHES THE REGION. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGHOUT AT LEAST NEXT
MIDWEEK. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE VEERING, BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 234 PM AST SAT FEB 7 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS (LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY IN THE SURF ZONE) CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN,
NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AS PULSES OF NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SPREADS
TOMORROW TO CULEBRA, ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN, AND THEN LIKELY TO
CULEBRA, WESTERN PR, VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX ON MONDAY. THIS RIP
CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MIDWEEK.
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS (HIGH SURF PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION
AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS)AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LARGER, LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
REACHES THE REGION AND SEAS BUILD BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET WITH AROUND
13 TO 15 SECONDS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TOMORROW. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND
GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PRZ012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ712-741-742.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ712-716-741-742.
SHORT TERM & AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM....GRS
MARINE & BEACH FORECAST...MRR
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