567
FXCA62 TJSJ 080732
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
* SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL INCREASING THE RISK
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS.
* BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT EXPOSED
COASTAL AND ELEVATED AREAS, CONTRIBUTING TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND PUSHING SHOWERS INLAND, WITH INCREASING IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
* HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
WORSEN, AS A STRONGER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES IN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING THE
RISK OF DANGEROUS SEAS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND
LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING.
* COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS AT NIGHT, INCLUDING ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE REGION, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. RADAR ESTIMATES SINCE MIDNIGHT SHOWED
RAINFALL TOTALS PEAKING NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO, WITH AROUND 1 INCH OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE AROUND 8 PM, INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LOCAL ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE MID-70S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
DROPPING ANOTHER 1–3 DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS BEHIND THE
SHOWERS SHIFTED TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, GENERALLY 5–10 MPH, WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN AND NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE
LOCAL WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN, LEADING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING PERIODS OF RAIN
TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SHOWERS INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS. WHILE
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER LAND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT
TIMES, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND SAINT CROIX. FLOODING IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED,
THOUGH BRIEF URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST. WIND IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND
LOCALIZED TODAY, MAINLY AFFECTING EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
AND SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BECOMING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS, WHICH WILL BECOME A MORE
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY, THEN
STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
COASTAL AREAS. WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE,
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO, WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS MAY PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SAINT
CROIX. COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
A BUILDING HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT WILL LIFT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE FRONTAL REMNANTS INCREASE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM BELOW-
NORMAL LEVELS OF 0.80 INCHES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES (ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO,
AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY POSES A LIMITED FLOODING RISK, WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-DRAINAGE AREAS, AND A LOW
CHANCE OF URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT THE
925 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, BEFORE RISING ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
CONSEQUENTLY, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER
UPDATES AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY, PARTICULARLY IF ATTENDING OUTDOOR PRE-
VALENTINE'S DAY CELEBRATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
SHRA WILL AFFECT TJSJ, TJBQ, AND USVI TAF SITES THRU 08/13Z,
RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LOWER CIGS/VIS. VFR WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE FROPA MOVES SE,
THOUGH SHRA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE USVI THRU THE DAY AND ISO–SCT
AFTN SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER PR TERMINALS WITH LIMITED IMPACTS.
WINDS 5–10 KT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 12–16 KT AFTER ~08/13Z,
BECOMING MAINLY N, WITH HIGHER GUSTS PSBL THRU THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS, WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE US COAST WILL BEGIN TO YIELD
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, A LARGER, LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL EXARCERBATE MARINE CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK, AS THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE
SWELL WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL PROMOTE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
REST OF LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 332 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE WEST, NORTH, AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF
THE ISLANDS.
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS (HIGH SURF PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION
AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS) AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LARGER, LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL REACHES THE REGION AND SEAS BUILD BETWEEN 8
AND 12 FEET AT AROUND 13 TO 15 SECONDS. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN
PERSIST THROUGHOUT MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES,
WARNINGS, AND GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ711-712-741-
742.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ716.
SHORT TERM/AVIATIONS...ICP
LONG TERM/MARINE....DSR/GRS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page