551
FXCA62 TJSJ 081850
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
* A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOURS
AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
MOSTLY MINOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST, WITH ONLY A LIMITED FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
* SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN,
ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
* A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS, RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS AND HAZARDOUS COASTAL
CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO BEGINNING TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
* ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSIST NEAR THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, FREQUENT SHOWERS
MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINED VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL
THE ISLANDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHT TO MODERATE, SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO,
PARTICULARLY IN MUNICIPALITIES ACROSS THE METRO AREA. ACCORDING TO
DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES, SHOWERS FROM THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, COMBINED WITH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS, LEFT ALMOST 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS, WITH MOSTLY NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. AT 1 PM, LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AFFECTING
MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN MANATI AND FAJARDO. SURFACE WINDS PERSISTED
FROM THE NORTH UP TO 12 MPG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
COASTAL AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS AS CLOUDINESS
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM THE NORTH, HELPING TO
PUSH CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS;
HOWEVER, WET ROADWAYS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A MORE STABLE SURFACE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. UNDER THIS PATTERN, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN, ALLOWING A DRIER
AIR MASS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.00 INCHES BASED ON
SATELLITE-DERIVED IMAGERY, WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE
OVERALL STABLE PATTERN, A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE: ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, ENHANCING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT, RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT NIGHTTIME
CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS AND EVEN COOLER IN SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. ACROSS URBAN
AND COASTAL AREAS, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
A BUILDING HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT WILL LIFT LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE FRONTAL REMNANTS INCREASE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM BELOW-
NORMAL LEVELS OF 0.80 INCHES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES (ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS). WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO,
AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY POSES A LIMITED FLOODING RISK, WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-DRAINAGE AREAS, AND A LOW
CHANCE OF URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT THE
925 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, BEFORE RISING ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
CONSEQUENTLY, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER
UPDATES AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY, PARTICULARLY IF ATTENDING OUTDOOR PRE-
VALENTINE'S DAY CELEBRATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN VFR AND BRIEFLY
MVFR. FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO NIGHT HOURS, PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS AFFECTING CEILINGS BETWEEN FL020 AND FL080, RESULTING
IN LOWER VIS. SOME BRIEF VCSH AND -RA STILL FORECAST ACROSS TIST,
TISX & TJSJ FOR THIS LAST ONE AT LEAST UNTIL 09/00Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE N UP TO 13 KNOTS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS,
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 08/23Z AND INCREASING AGAIN AT
09/13Z FROM THE N WITH GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER ACTIVITY, WHILE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U.S. COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION, A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, A
LARGER AND LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DETERIORATE MARINE CONDITIONS. EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK,
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SWELL AND STRONGER WINDS WILL
PROMOTE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 248 PM AST SUN FEB 8 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE LAST DATA FROM BUOY
41046 SHOWS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPCOMING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL
WITH A WAVE HEIGHT OF 13FT AT 11 SECONDS FROM THE NNW. THEREFORE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN,
NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS SPREADS TOMORROW TO CULEBRA, ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN, AND
THEN LIKELY TO CULEBRA, WESTERN PR, VIEQUES AND ST. CROIX ON
MONDAY. THIS RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A LARGER, LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL REACHES
THE REGION AND SEAS BUILD BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET WITH PERIODS OF
AROUND 13 TO 15 SECONDS. THESE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
FORECAST UPDATES AND TO FOLLOW ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND
GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
741-742.
LIS/GRS
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