528
FXCA62 TJSJ 101909
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 306 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
* DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
EXPOSED AREAS, LEADING TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION, AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
* HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT.
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL AND
EXPOSED AREAS, UNSECURED ITEMS MAY BLOW AROUND.
* COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT SHOWERS STEERED BY BREEZY NNE FLOW PREVAILED
TODAY. AS OF 2 PM, THE TJUA RADAR DETECTED NO PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 7:24 AM. OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL STATIONS REPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
INDICATE 1.30 TO 1.50 INCHES, AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE 12Z SOUNDING DETECTED 1.52
INCHES OF PWAT. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UP TO BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING. AS A FRONTAL LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. UNDER THIS PATTERN, STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
UNDER THE ABOVE MENTIONED STEERING FLOW, DRIER AIR WILL START TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT PROMPTING NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PWAT
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY FURTHER LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER SECTORS OF THE INTERIOR. THE SAME
MOISTURE FIELD THAT WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW
WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY, PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALSO APPROACHES
THE REGION AND PROMOTES DEEPER MOISTURE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY UNDER THIS
PATTERN. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SHOWERS AND UP TO A LIMITED
FLOODING RISK OVER SOME WINDWARD SECTORS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER INTERIOR TO W-NW PR, AND DOWNWIND OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EL
YUNQUE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE MOISTURE BAND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE TROUGH ALSO MOVES
AWAY. 925 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT EARLY
TOMORROW, BEGINNING A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY (REACHING NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES) AND ON THURSDAY UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
(REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL).
LONG TERM(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, PROMOTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT FROM THE EAST AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MIGRATES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE REGION, PROMOTING STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE LATEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) ANALYSIS REFLECTS THIS STABILITY, SHOWING
VALUES WITHIN THE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE OF 1.20 TO 1.50
INCHES. UNDER THIS PATTERN, TRADE-WIND MOISTURE WILL BRING PASSING
MORNING SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK, THE
FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LIMITED, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AT THE 925 MB LEVEL WILL GRADUALLY RISE
TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS STARTING FRIDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY, HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 306 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SITES WITH PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NNE (VEERING DURING THE
PERIOD) UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 10/23Z, INCREASING
AGAIN AT 12/13Z UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE ENE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VCSH
POSSIBLE AT WINDWARD TERMINALS; PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS OF INTERIOR PR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE, LONG-
PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCAL
WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NNW SWELL.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 306 PM AST TUE FEB 10 2026
SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE BEACH FORECAST. THE LATEST
NDBC BUOY 41043 OBSERVATIONS SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 AND 12
FEET, WITH SWELL PERIODS FROM THE N-NNW BETWEEN 12 AND 14 SECONDS.
BASED ON SWELL DECAY AND CONSIDERING SHOALING FACTORS (STEEPNESS),
BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 14 AND 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN, EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS. HENCE,
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY, AND THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM AST THURSDAY. AREAS UNDER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAN EXPECT FLOODING OF
VULNERABLE COASTAL AREAS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION, WHILE LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG BEACHES UNDER RIP
CURRENT STATEMENTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW FLAG
WARNINGS AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES.
AS THE SWELL DIMINISHES, BEACH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY FRIDAY,
THOUGH THEY MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSES OF ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ011-013.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR PRZ013.
VI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR VIZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR VIZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
723-726-733-741-742-745.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MRR
LONG TERM...ICP
MARINE/BEACH FCST...MNG
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