706
FXCA62 TJSJ 110700
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
* HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES
TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
* HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, CREATING
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS AND SMALL CRAFT, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS, WHERE UNSECURED
ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND.
* COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE
IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS, WITH VARIABLE TO
OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AS
THE FEATURE DEPARTS. DURING THIS PERIOD, TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE LOW TO MID 50S AT NIGHT TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DURING THE
DAY, ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NNE–NE WINDS
OF 15–20 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35–40 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH, A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA,
PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE, MID-LEVEL DRYING, AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE TRADE-WIND INVERSION, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NE TO ENE WINDS,
GRADUALLY VEERING TO EASTERLY WHILE WEAKENING FROM A STRONG TO
MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED COOLING EARLY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. DRIER AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED, BRIEF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS, AND LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER FAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO DRIVEN BY SEA-
BREEZE AND LOCAL EFFECTS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHILE WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
PARTICULARLY ALONG EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING A
BAND OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING AND CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO ABOVE OR
LOCALLY WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE COOLING ALOFT AND ENHANCED UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY, ACTIVITY WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD SECTORS, EXPANDING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS
DOWNWIND OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EL YUNQUE, WHILE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AS THE MOISTURE BAND LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD, SUPPORTING LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS. AS DRIER AIR CLOSER TO SEASONAL OR LOCALLY BELOW-
NORMAL PWAT VALUES MOVES IN FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING TO
EASTERLY AND WEAKENING FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY STILL SUPPORT COOLER-FEELING CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WITH A LIMITED RISK OF URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING.
LONG TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EASTWARD, PROMOTING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MIGRATES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION, FOSTERING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS THIS PATTERN, WITH VALUES REMAINING WITHIN THE SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL RANGE OF 1.20 TO 1.55 INCHES. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
TRADE-WIND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BRIEF PASSING MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS,
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
GIVEN THIS SETUP, THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS LIMITED, PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE URGE PEOPLE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PERSISTENT MID- TO
UPPER-LVL CLDS. NNE WINDS, VEERING THRU THE PD, WILL PREVAIL AT UP
TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS, MAINLY AT THE MOST EXPOSED USVI TAF
SITES, THRU 14Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFT 13Z, BECOMING ENE
AT 18–20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VCSH PSBL AT WINDWARD TAF SITES,
WITH PTCHY FOG PSBL OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PR. VCSH COVG
INCR AFT 23Z, MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ AND USVI TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, PROMOTING CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. A
LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST LOCAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NW SWELL.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 300 AM AST WED FEB 11 2026
A LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT RINCON AND SAN JUAN
INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 14 TO 15
SECONDS, WHICH TRANSLATES TO BREAKING WAVES OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO
15 FEET, AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS, LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, VIEQUES, AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, HIGH SURF ADVISORY,
AND HIGH RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
AS THE SWELL DIMINISHES, BEACH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY FRIDAY,
THOUGH THEY MAY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE WEEKEND AS THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PULSES OF ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER, CONTINUE MONITORING
FORECAST UPDATES, AND FOLLOW ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND
GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRZ011-013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR VIZ001.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VIZ002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THURSDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR AMZ723-726-733-
742-745.
PM CREW...DSR/MMC
MID CREW... ICP
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