210
FXCA62 TJSJ 070545
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
145 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK;
UNSECURED AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BLOW AROUND.
* FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS AND
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL FILTER ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE E TO
ENE AT TIMES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING FAST-MOVING
SHOWER FREQUENCY.
* A WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PROMOTE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS AN ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MOVED
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES EXCEEDING 1.70 INCHES, THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT IN VERY MOIST,
HUMID AIR, TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BECAUSE THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY DUE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS, DOPPLER RADAR HAS OBSERVED ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINED IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS HAVE PREVAILED FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OCCURRING NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY, IT
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND PROMOTE WET CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY. THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF
WATER IN ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OVER THE MONA PASSAGE, ALLOWING RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AND CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
DECREASE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE, DAYTIME
HEATING, AND LOCAL EFFECTS MAY STILL TRIGGER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. INSTABILITY
ALOFT—SUPPORTED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -9 AND -10°C WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND RETURN TO
SEASONAL CONDITIONS AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. THIS HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THEREFORE, POSING A LIMITED TO LOCALLY ELEVATED WIND RISK WHERE
UNSECURED ITEMS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND. TEMPERATURES AT THE 925 MB
LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, WITH A
PERSISTENT JET ALOFT SUPPORTING A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE THAN TYPICALLY OBSERVED IN EARLY MARCH. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES, WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. AT THE SAME TIME, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.75 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND INVERSION AND
SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY, GRADUALLY EASING LATE IN THE WEEK. EMBEDDED MOISTURE
PATCHES MOVING WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.
IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS, AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA PROMOTING SHRA AND VCTS ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX THRU
07/22-23Z. VCSH POSSIBLE OVER TJPS/TJBQ AFT 07/14Z THRU 07/23Z.
E WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS THRU 07/14Z. INCREASING BTWN 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 25 KT, AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT
07/13-14Z THRU 07/23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
A SERIES OF HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MOST REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, AS OFFSHORE
WATERS SEE SEAS REACHING 8 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS, WHILE
COASTAL WATERS CAN EXPECT 7-FOOT SEAS AND SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS.
SMALLER VESSELS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AS AN
EASTERLY DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 122 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
REGIONAL WATERS AND PASSAGES. CONSEQUENTLY, A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND STRICTLY ADHERE TO THE ADVICE OF BEACH
PATROLS, FLAG SYSTEMS, AND POSTED SIGNAGE. WHILE A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALL BEACHGOERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, AS LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-012-013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY FOR AMZ711-712-716-
723-726-733-741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ735.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...OMS
KEY MESSAGES/LONG TERM....CAM
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