217
FXCA62 TJSJ 080706
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. UNSECURED AND
OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BLOW AROUND.
* FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH
SEAS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
* A WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30
INCHES ACROSS THESE REGIONS. BRIEF SHOWERS ALSO PASSED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS; HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW TO
MID-70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH, WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IN THE
MID-LEVELS, TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WILL REMAIN BETWEEN -8°C AND -
10°C, SUPPORTING INSTABILITY. THIS PATTERN, COMBINED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES, WILL SUSTAIN A SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AROUND 1.50
INCHES, THOUGH POCKETS OF DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BETWEEN MOISTURE
PATCHES. THE FLOODING RISK REMAINS LIMITED; HOWEVER, PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA, AND EXTENDING TOWARD HISPANIOLA WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT JET ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES AT THE 925 MB LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
EACH DAY.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS PATTERN, ABUNDANT
PATCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.7 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET OF OVER 100 KNOTS, ENHANCING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ACCORDING TO
MODEL GUIDANCE, 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -8 AND -9
DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, SINCE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRIVEN BY WINDY CONDITIONS, SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST; THEREFORE, THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS
WINDS AT THE 0–3 KM LAYER BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MOSTLY SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER THIS PATTERN, MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, GENERALLY
SUPPORTING FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO BRISK WINDS, WHICH
PROMOTE FASTER-MOVING SHOWERS AND PREVENT PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER
ANY PARTICULAR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE THE ISLANDS TODAY, WITH
VCSH AFFECTING THE PR & USVI TERMINALS THRU 08/14Z. VCSH OVER
TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST AFT 08/14Z THROUGH 08/22-3Z. E WINDS BTWN 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30 KT AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT
08/14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE CONDITIONS
REACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FEET. WHILE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
OPERATORS OF SMALLER VESSELS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO AVOID NAVIGATING
IN THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION,
MAINTAINING A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SHORELINES OF PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR
UPDATES CLOSELY AND STRICTLY ADHERE TO THE GUIDANCE OF BEACH
PATROLS, FLAG SYSTEMS, AND POSTED SAFETY SIGNAGE. WHILE A MODERATE
RISK CONTINUES ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALL BEACHGOERS
SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT, AS LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A MODERATE RISK IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SHORELINES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-012-013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR AMZ712-716-723-
726-733-741.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GRS
LONG TERM....LIS
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...OMS
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