279
FXCA62 TJSJ 081806
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
UNSECURED AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BLOW AROUND.
* FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH
SEAS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
* VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, MONDAY, WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
* BY TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE,
ELEVATING THE FLOODING AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
THE MORNING BEGAN SLIGHTLY WET, WITH PASSING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 0.03 TO
0.40 INCHES. WINDS REMAINED RELATIVELY STRONG, GENERALLY 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
OBSERVED AT BUCK ISLAND (41 MPH) AND PONCE (37 MPH) DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH AS THE CULEBRA, EL
YUNQUE, AND VIEQUES STREAMERS MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO ORGANIZE IN BANDS
AT TIMES, PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AROUND 1 TO 1.50 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN OF MORNING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
BEGINNING TUESDAY, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA TOWARD HISPANIOLA WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT JET
ALOFT, WILL PROMOTE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS, WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -
8C OR SLIGHTLY BELOW, SUPPORTING A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
ISSUED AT 252 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS PATTERN, ABUNDANT
PATCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.7 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET OF OVER 100 KNOTS, ENHANCING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. ACCORDING TO
MODEL GUIDANCE, 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -8 AND -9
DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, SINCE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRIVEN BY WINDY CONDITIONS, SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST; THEREFORE, THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS
WINDS AT THE 0–3 KM LAYER BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MOSTLY SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER THIS PATTERN, MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS, A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, GENERALLY
SUPPORTING FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED OVERALL DUE TO BRISK WINDS, WHICH
PROMOTE FASTER-MOVING SHOWERS AND PREVENT PROLONGED RAINFALL OVER
ANY PARTICULAR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. VARIABLE
WINDS BTWN 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KT THROUGH 08/23Z.
VCSH TO -RA POSSIBLE OVER TJPS THROUGH 08/22Z. VCSH COULD AFFECT
TIST, TISX, TSJU TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS IN MOST TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA, SEAS CONTINUE
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET OVER ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGE, WHILE LOCAL NEARSHORE BUOYS
SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTEROMETER
SCANS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KT, WHILE LOCAL BUOYS REPORT 15
TO 20 KT, GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES, HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK, OPERATORS OF SMALLER VESSELS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 201 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2026
THE BEACH FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA, WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST ALTIMETER SCANS
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET, AND LOCAL NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORT 5
TO 7 FEET. THIS COULD RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES EQUAL TO OR HIGHER
THAN 6 FEET, BECOMING HAZARDOUS FOR BEACHGOERS. THEREFORE, THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NOON. NEVERTHELESS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND STRICTLY
ADHERE TO THE ADVICE OF BEACH PATROLS, FLAG SYSTEMS, AND POSTED
SIGNS. WHILE A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, ALL BEACHGOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, AS LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURF ZONE. BEACH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-012-013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR AMZ712-716-723-
726-733-741.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...
LONG TERM...LIS
MARINE/BEACH...MNG
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