749
FXCA62 TJSJ 091804
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
* UPDATE: RIP CURRENT STATEMENT EXTENDED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS AND A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS CONTINUE IN EFFECT.
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UNSECURED AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BLOW AROUND.
* AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* ACROSS THE USVI, QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE AT
TIMES, WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN, EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PR SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN
1-1.50 INCHES FROM EL YUNQUE TO GUAYAMA. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI, STREAMERS WILL CONTINUE
TO REDEVELOP, AND PRODUCE QUICK DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. AS OF 1 PM, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID-80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ISLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST UP TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES.
PERSISTENT BREEZY TRADE WINDS (EAST WINDS) AND HIGHLY VARIABLE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE 925 MB WIND SPEEDS (LOW-LEVEL WINDS) WILL
REMAIN CONSISTENTLY ELEVATED, GENERALLY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 18
AND 23 KNOTS, INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE CONTENT AND SHOWER POTENTIAL, MODEL GUIDANCE,
AND PREVIOUS TREND, SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL SEE A DISTINCT
DIP (DRY) AND RECOVERY (WET) PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STARTED RELATIVELY HIGH AT 1.70 INCHES
BASED ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
AROUND 1.40 INCHES BY TOMORROW. THIS BRIEF DRYING TREND IS
REFLECTED IN THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY LAYERS,
BOTH OF WHICH SHOW A SHARP DECREASE OF AROUND 20-30%, LIKELY
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, THIS DRY SPELL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER PATCH OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN,
BRINGING THE LOWER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BACK UP TO NEAR 80%.
WHILE THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY COLD (AROUND -9C TO
-10C), THE LATEST UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION LAYER FROM
700 TO 500 MB, WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AND, AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THE INCREASE IN PWAT TO AROUND 1.70
INCHES WILL MOSTLY TRANSLATE INTO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN FAST-
MOVING, SHALLOW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS RATHER THAN HEAVY, WIDESPREAD
RAIN.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM AST MON MAR 9 2026
A TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
COOL DOWN AT THE MID LEVELS BY THURSDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH MODERATE
MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS, WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR AND
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE
LIKELY, AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL STEER
THE WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE MODERATE, AROUND
15 KNOTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAGGED IN AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL NOT BE
AS FAVORABLE AS ON THURSDAY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN
SOME AREAS, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER IN ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS WATER SURGES IN CREEKS
AND SMALL RIVERS. ALSO, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP A LITTLE, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR COASTAL
AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, QUICK PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF -RA/VCSH PERIODS ACROSS THE AREA
TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ. THE 09/12Z TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED EAST WINDS UP TO 33 KT BLO FL050.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT COASTAL
BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET, WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KT, GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS UNTIL NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK; HOWEVER, CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND CHECK THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS
BEFORE VENTURING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
SOME CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE BEACH FORECAST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA, WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH BASED ON OFFICIAL AND NON-OFFICIAL
STATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, LOCAL NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET, WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KT, GUSTS UP TO
20 TO 25 KT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, THESE CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST TOMORROW, RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES EQUAL TO OR HIGHER
THAN 6 FEET, HAZARDOUS FOR BEACHGOERS. THEREFORE, THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT WAS EXTENDED FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH 6 AM AST TOMORROW, TUESDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND STRICTLY ADHERE TO THE
ADVICE OF BEACH PATROLS, FLAG SYSTEMS, AND POSTED SIGNS. WHILE A
MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALL
BEACHGOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, AS LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURF ZONE. BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM AST MON MAR 9 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE NOTED IN CABO ROJO TODAY.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPED TO 48% EARLIER THIS MORNING, WHILE
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AT CABO ROJO WAS AT 667,
INDICATING CRITICALLY DRY FUELS HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION AND
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS WERE FROM 15 TO 19 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 MPH DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. THEREFORE, A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT (RFDSJU) WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
THE DRYING TREND, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS COULD SUPPORT
RAPID FIRE SPREAD, IF A FIRE STARTS, AND OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-012-013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR AMZ712-716-
726.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST TUESDAY FOR AMZ723-733-741.
SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....ERG
AVIATION...DSR
BEACH/MARINE...MNG
FIRE WEATHER...DSR
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