923
FXCA62 TJSJ 301905
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
* PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH DAY. EXPECT MORNING
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS AND AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
* A LIMITED-TO-ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, LOW-LYING AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE, AND SATURATED SOILS.
* HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, INCLUDING ROUGH
SEAS AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT, LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS, AND HIGH SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING BEACHES.
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS IN PR AND THE USVI.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS ST CROIX AND WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO, WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN IN THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS OF PR AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY NOON, SHOWERS MOVED FURTHER
INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SOUTH, AND SOUTHWEST PR. WINDS WERE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL SITES IN CULEBRA AND ST. THOMAS. MOST
COASTAL AND URBAN SITES OBSERVED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
TO UPPER 80S, WHILE MOUNTAIN SITES OBSERVED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-70S.
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
PATCHES OF CLOUDS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS
OF PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN, REMAINING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD, BRINGING PERIODIC INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND RAIN
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO
MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS WITHOUT
RAIN, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE, HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ALONG NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A
LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING: HIGH SURF, LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND POSSIBLE COASTAL EROSION. IF YOU
PLAN TO VISIT THE BEACH, USE EXTREME CAUTION AND CONSIDER SOUTH-
OR CARIBBEAN-FACING BEACHES, WHERE CONDITIONS ARE SAFER.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY FLOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST, AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WHICH
USUALLY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL. IF THE DAY STAYS CLOUDY, THEN IT WILL SHUT DOWN
THE DIURNAL HEATING MECHANISM, PREVENTING HEAVY RAIN FROM
DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS AN EVOLVING SCENARIO, THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE
COULD 153BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE WARMING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. FOR THESE DAYS, THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TOO,
SO HIGHS COULD CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. NEVERTHELESS, BRIEF MVFR
CONTD POSSIBLE OVER TJPS FROM 30/18Z THROUGH 30/23Z DUE TO VCTS.
FREQUENT VCSH ANTICIPATED OVER TJSJ, TIST, TISX, AND TJBQ AFTER
31/00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM NE AT 8 TO 15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST NEAR SHOWERS. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WINDS IS
FORECAST FROM 31/13Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES, AS WINDS ARE FORECASTS
TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT AND HIGHER GUST AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
IT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, CREATING
CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, A LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
FROM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE SPRING BREAK
WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 300 PM AST MON MAR 30 2026
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RAPIDLY TURN HIGH LATER THIS
EVENING ALONG NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE A LOW RISK WILL PERSIST ALONG SOUTH-FACING
BEACHES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL
COMBINED WITH BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS. THIS COMBINATION IS
LIKELY TO CREATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH-
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH-FACING EXPOSED COASTLINES.
BEACHGOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND REMAIN AWARE OF CHANGING
MARINE CONDITIONS. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND FOLLOW LOCAL
SAFETY GUIDANCE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-005-008-010.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
PRZ001-002-005-008-010.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PRZ012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
PRZ012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VIZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR
VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ711-712.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ716-723-741-742.
KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM
LONG TERM....ERG
AVIATION...MMC
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