338
FXCA62 TJSJ 311824
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
* HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE: LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH- AND EAST-
FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AVOID
ENTERING THE WATER IN THESE AREAS.
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS: PASSING SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON: SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS.
* BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST: BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AND EXPOSED AREAS,
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
* IMPACTS ON DAILY ACTIVITIES: OUTDOOR AND HOLIDAY PLANS MAY BE
AFFECTED BY RAIN AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. STAY ALERT FOR
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FOLLOW LOCAL SAFETY GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR MASS MOVED ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO OF PR AND THE USVI.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES OCCASIONALLY MOVED INLAND
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS WERE MAINLY 10 TO 20
MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MOST COASTAL AND URBAN SITES
RECORDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S, WHILE
MOUNTAIN SITES RECORDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S.
SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT PATCHES OF CLOUDS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
LOCATIONS OF PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COULD ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LIMITED RISK OF
FLOODING.
LOOKING AHEAD, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD, LEADING TO PERIODIC INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL ACROSS WINDWARD LOCATIONS, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT EACH DAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ALONG NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF ST THOMAS, ST JOHN, AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES,
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL BRING: HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND POSSIBLE
COASTAL EROSION. IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT THE BEACH, USE EXTREME
CAUTION AND CONSIDER SOUTH- OR CARIBBEAN-FACING BEACHES, WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE SAFER.
LONG TERM(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM AST MON MAR 30 2026
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY FLOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST, AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WHICH
USUALLY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL. IF THE DAY STAYS CLOUDY, THEN IT WILL SHUT DOWN
THE DIURNAL HEATING MECHANISM, PREVENTING HEAVY RAIN FROM
DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS AN EVOLVING SCENARIO, THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE
COULD 153BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE WARMING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. FOR THESE DAYS, THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TOO,
SO HIGHS COULD CLIMB TO THE LOW 90S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. FREQUENT VCSH ANTICIPATED OVER
TJSJ, TIST, AND TJBQ AFTER 30/18Z, THEN FROM 31/00Z THRU 31/12Z.
TODAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM NE AT 8 TO 12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST. WINDS ARE FORECASTS INCREASE FROM 31/12Z ONWARDS TO
15
- 20 KT AND HIGHER GUST AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A LONG-
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL, CREATING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A SHEAR LINE REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA. A STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN THESE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST; HOWEVER, CHOPPY TO ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 220 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2026
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE CREATING LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ALONG NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHERE ENTERING THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
WHILE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES HAVE A LOWER RISK, CAUTION IS STILL
ADVISED AS CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEYOND THAT. BEACHGOERS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT, FOLLOW LOCAL SAFETY GUIDANCE, AND ONLY SWIM NEAR
LIFEGUARDS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012-013.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ013.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VIZ001.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ711-
712-716-723-741-742.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR AMZ726.
KEY MESSAGES/SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...CAM
LONG TERM....LIS
AVIATION...MMC
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