759
FGCA72 TJSJ 101519
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-063-065-
067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-
135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-020-030-120330-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1119 AM AST FRI APR 10 2026
...THE RISK OF FLOOD CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
ON SUNDAY, REACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO REFLECT AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE
AXIS REACHING THE ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ON MONDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEN, IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONGER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE INTERIOR, MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS, BUT ESPECIALLY STRONG
ALONG ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
SOILS CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO, BUT A BREAK IN RECENT RAINFALLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SOIL TO DRY
A LITTLE. STREAMS ARE MOSTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL OR HIGH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
TAKING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO CONSIDERATION, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
LANDSLIDES AND RAPID RIVER RISES IS INCREASING. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL FALL, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR 1 TO 3" EACH DAY, AND ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SO FAR, THE DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ARE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
AT THIS TIME, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM, BUT
INCREASING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
RUNS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST
IN THE EXACT AMOUNTS, TIMING AND LOCATIONS MOST AFFECTED. IT IS ALSO
WORTH MENTIONING THAT CLOUD COVERAGE COULD ALSO IMPACT THE AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, AS CLOUDY SKIES TEND TO INHIBIT HEAVY RAIN
FORMATION.
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY TO REFLECT UPDATES IN THE
FORECAST.
ERG
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