509
FXCA62 TJSJ 260757
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH- AND
EAST-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE AND CAN BE LIFE-THREATENING.
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WHEN FLOODING AND LIGHTNING RISKS WILL RISE.
* ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST, WITH HEAT INDICES AT
OR ABOVE 100°F POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS.
* ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST DAILY,
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK,
LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LIGHTNING IMPACTS,
DEPENDING ON WHERE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, SIMILAR
TO THE RECENT PATTERN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT EASTERN PUERTO RICO, THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS A LINGERING BAND OF SHOWERS DRIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SHALLOW DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT, DESPITE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE IN LOCALIZED AREAS, FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH,
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.
A TRANSITION TOWARD A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING MORE FREQUENT AND BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
IN PLACE, ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PERSIST LONGER OVER AFFECTED AREAS.
AS A RESULT, THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM LIMITED ON
MONDAY TO ELEVATED BY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
IMPACTS DEVELOPING WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST. ADDITIONALLY, A LIMITED
HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
OVERALL, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ABUNDANT CARIBBEAN MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A MID-TO-UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH, WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW, PROMOTING WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF DAILY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MORNING ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING URBAN AND METROPOLITAN AREAS. BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL STILL DEVELOP, OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT THE 925 MB
LEVEL WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, GRADUALLY EASING INTO THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS COASTAL
AND URBAN AREAS, AND FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S IN HIGHER TERRAINS.
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
100°F DAILY, PARTICULARLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
FORECAST, STAY WELL HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT,
AND LIMIT PROLONGED SUN EXPOSURE, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HOURS....
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EARLY, BECOMING
SE UP TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 26/14Z. BETWEEN 26/17–23Z, SHRA/TSRA
MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS
(TJSJ/TJBQ), CAUSING BRIEF MVFR. AFTER 23Z, ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH VCSH OVER EASTERN PR/USVI. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY, TURNING MORE ESE THROUGH MIDWEEK. PULSES OF SMALL, LONG-
PERIOD NNE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND PASSAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 400 AM AST SUN APR 26 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. PULSES OF SMALL, BUT LONG-PERIOD NNE SWELLS WILL
REACH THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS CAN STILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN ENTERING THE
NORTHERN BEACHES. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
EVE...DSR/MMC
MID...ICP
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