852
FXCA62 TJSJ 210739 CCA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROMOTING FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. KEEP IN MIND, GUSTY WINDS MAY BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED ITEMS.
* BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES,
AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
* WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH HEAT
INDICES REMAINING BETWEEN 100 AND 105F. THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT HEAT- SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OUTDOORS
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DOPPLER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OBSERVED POCKETS OF FAST-MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS; HOWEVER,
ONLY A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS REACHED PORTIONS OF VIEQUES AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGED
FROM THE LOW TO MID-70S ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS, AND FROM THE
LOW TO MID-60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILED AT
5 TO 10 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AND LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS.
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC (NEAR
THE BAHAMAS) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS SETUP WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) CONTENT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT SEASONAL VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES.
HOWEVER, PWAT VALUES WILL BRIEFLY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO
AROUND 1.30 INCHES BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. UNDER THIS
PATTERN, PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BECAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY, KEEPING THE RISK OF FLOODING LIMITED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DAILY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S ALONG COASTAL AREAS, AND FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO STAY HYDRATED, SEEK
SHADE, AND MONITOR LOCAL CONDITIONS TO ENSURE SAFETY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
SMALL CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST, AS VARIABLE
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING WETTER BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-ESE AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, MAINTAINING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, PEAKING ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY MIGRATE EASTWARD AND LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WEAKENING AND VEERING WINDS FROM THE SE
TUESDAY ONWARD. MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE POOLS INTO THE
REGION. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, PWAT VALUES COULD
INCREASE UP TO 2.0 INCHES, NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL, WITH LOW
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SOUNDING
MODELS SHOWING SKINNY PROFILES. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRIEFLY COOL BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (AROUND -8 DEGREES CELSIUS), GRADUALLY WARMING AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CWA WEAKENS THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST, FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FAST-MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER HALF OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONALLY, STREAMERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER OVER
ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING, WITH A
LIMITED FLOODING THREAT. BESIDES FLOODING, THESE AREAS CAN
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. AS WINDS SHIFT AND MOISTURE
CONTENT INCREASES, THE FLOOD THREAT MAY REMAIN LIMITED, BUT AN
ELEVATED THREAT (INCLUDING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING) OVER
LOCALIZED AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
HEAT INDICES OVER LOCALIZED AREAS (PARTICULARLY URBAN AND COASTAL)
OF THE ISLANDS MAY REACH AND EXCEED 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HEAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED, LIKELY TO IMPACT THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT. STAY HYDRATED AND AVOID LONG SUN EXPOSURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, E
TO ESE WINDS UP TO 15-22 KTS AFTER 21/13-14Z, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS, DECREASING AFTER 21/23Z. WINDS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF -SHRA/VCSH AROUND WINDWARD TERMINALS THRU
21/23Z. AFTN SHRA/+SHRA AND VCTS, WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NW PR POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS
OVER TJBQ. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY E TO ESE WINDS AT 15-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU
21/23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY, PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 325 AM AST THU MAY 21 2026
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST LOCAL
BEACHES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ONGOING WIND-DRIVEN SEAS. THE HIGHEST RISK WILL
REMAIN ALONG NORTH AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA,
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BEACHGOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, AS
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ711.
SHORT TERM...GRS
LONG TERM....MNG
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...ICP
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